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Confidence sets for the break date based on optimal tests

Author

Listed:
  • Eiji Kurozumi
  • Yohei Yamamoto

Abstract

In this paper, we propose constructing a confidence set for the date of a one‐time structural change using a point optimal test. Following Elliott and Müller (2007, Journal of Econometrics 141, 1196–1218), we first construct a test for the break date that maximizes the weighted average of the power function. The confidence set is then obtained by inverting the test statistic. We carefully choose the weights and show by Monte Carlo simulations that the confidence set based on our method has a relatively accurate coverage rate, while the length of our confidence set is significantly shorter than the lengths proposed in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Eiji Kurozumi & Yohei Yamamoto, 2015. "Confidence sets for the break date based on optimal tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(3), pages 412-435, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:emjrnl:v:18:y:2015:i:3:p:412-435
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ectj.12055
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    Cited by:

    1. Anton Skrobotov, 2021. "Structural breaks in cointegration models," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 117-141.
    2. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J., 2016. "Improving the length of confidence sets for the date of a break in level and trend when the order of integration is unknown," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 239-245.
    3. KUROZUMI, Eiji & 黒住, 英司, 2016. "Monitoring Parameter Constancy with Endogenous Regressors," Discussion Papers 2016-01, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Alessandro Casini & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Structural Breaks in Time Series," Papers 1805.03807, arXiv.org.
    5. KUROZUMI, Eiji & 黒住, 英司, 2017. "Confidence Sets for the Date of a Mean Shift at the End of a Sample," Discussion Papers 2017-06, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Eiji Kurozumi & Anton Skrobotov, 2018. "Confidence Sets for the Break Date in Cointegrating Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(3), pages 514-535, June.
    7. Eiji Kurozumi, 2018. "Confidence Sets for the Date of a Structural Change at the End of a Sample," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 850-862, November.
    8. Eiji Kurozumi & Anton Skrobotov, 2025. "Confidence Sets for the Emergence, Collapse, and Recovery Dates of a Bubble," Papers 2511.16172, arXiv.org.
    9. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2015. "Likelihood‐ratio‐based confidence sets for the timing of structural breaks," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 6(2), pages 463-497, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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