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Estimation for change point of discretely observed ergodic diffusion processes

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  • Yozo Tonaki
  • Yusuke Kaino
  • Masayuki Uchida

Abstract

We treat the change point problem in ergodic diffusion processes from discrete observations. Tonaki et al. (2021a) proposed adaptive tests for detecting changes in the diffusion and drift parameters in ergodic diffusion process models. When any change in the diffusion or drift parameter is detected by this or any other method, the next question to consider is where the change point is located. Therefore, we propose the method to estimate the change point of the parameter for two cases: the case where there is a change in the diffusion parameter, and the case where there is no change in the diffusion parameter but a change in the drift parameter. Furthermore, we present rates of convergence and distributional results of the change point estimators. Some examples and simulation results are also given.

Suggested Citation

  • Yozo Tonaki & Yusuke Kaino & Masayuki Uchida, 2023. "Estimation for change point of discretely observed ergodic diffusion processes," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 50(1), pages 142-183, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scjsta:v:50:y:2023:i:1:p:142-183
    DOI: 10.1111/sjos.12567
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ilia Negri & Yoichi Nishiyama, 2017. "Z-process method for change point problems with applications to discretely observed diffusion processes," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 26(2), pages 231-250, June.
    2. Yusuke Kaino & Masayuki Uchida, 2018. "Hybrid estimators for stochastic differential equations from reduced data," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 435-454, July.
    3. Song, Junmo, 2020. "Robust test for dispersion parameter change in discretely observed diffusion processes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    4. Nakahiro Yoshida, 2011. "Polynomial type large deviation inequalities and quasi-likelihood analysis for stochastic differential equations," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 63(3), pages 431-479, June.
    5. Iacus, Stefano M. & Yoshida, Nakahiro, 2012. "Estimation for the change point of volatility in a stochastic differential equation," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 1068-1092.
    6. Junmo Song & Sangyeol Lee, 2009. "Test for parameter change in discretely observed diffusion processes," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 165-183, June.
    7. Masayuki Uchida & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2014. "Adaptive Bayes type estimators of ergodic diffusion processes from discrete observations," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 181-219, July.
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