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Tax amnesties and the insurance effect: An experimental study

Author

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  • Koch, Christian
  • Müller, Cornelius

Abstract

Many countries grant exemption from legal prosecution under certain conditions, allowing for voluntary disclosures regarding tax evasion. Empirically, tax amnesties appear most successful when accompanied by an increase in enforcement efforts as they help evaders to adjust to the new circumstances. Time-limited amnesties are frequently repeated and, in some countries, even made permanent. Anticipated tax amnesties can, however, serve as an insurance against a rise in the detection probability, potentially leading to less and not more tax compliance. We test the behavioral relevance of this insurance effect in an experimental tax game and find that it indeed decreases overall tax compliance by about 9-10 percent, highlighting its relevance for the design of tax policies. A high predictability of amnesties may work to their detriment.

Suggested Citation

  • Koch, Christian & Müller, Cornelius, 2024. "Tax amnesties and the insurance effect: An experimental study," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:108:y:2024:i:c:s2214804323001568
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2023.102130
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax compliance; Tax amnesty; Lab experiment; Social norms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior

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