IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v96y2016ipap792-799.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sun-tracking imaging system for intra-hour DNI forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Chu, Yinghao
  • Li, Mengying
  • Coimbra, Carlos F.M.

Abstract

A Sun-tracking imaging system is implemented for minimizing circumsolar image distortion for improved short-term solar irradiance forecasts. This sky-imaging system consists of a fisheye digital camera mounted on an automatic solar tracker that follows the diurnal pattern of the Sun. The Sun is located at the geometric center of the sky images where the fisheye distortion is minimized. Images from this new system provide more information about the circumsolar sky cover, which provides critical information for intra-hour solar forecasts, particularly for direct normal irradiance. An automatic masking algorithm has been developed to separate the sky area from ground obstacles and the image edges for each image that is collected. Then numerical image features are extracted from the segmented sky area and are used as exogenous inputs to MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) models for direct normal irradiance forecasts. Sixty-seven days of irradiance and image measurements are used to train, optimize, and assess the MLP-based forecast models for solar irradiance. The results show that the MLP forecasts based on the newly proposed sky-imaging system significantly outperform the reference models in terms of statistical metrics and forecast skill, particularly for shorter horizons, achieving forecast skills 18%–50% higher than the skills of a reference MLP-based model that is based on a zenith-pointed, stationary sky-imaging system.

Suggested Citation

  • Chu, Yinghao & Li, Mengying & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Sun-tracking imaging system for intra-hour DNI forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA), pages 792-799.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:96:y:2016:i:pa:p:792-799
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2016.05.041
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148116304529
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2016.05.041?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yap, Wai Kean & Karri, Vishy, 2015. "An off-grid hybrid PV/diesel model as a planning and design tool, incorporating dynamic and ANN modelling techniques," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 42-50.
    2. Lave, Matthew & Kleissl, Jan, 2010. "Solar variability of four sites across the state of Colorado," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2867-2873.
    3. Chen, S.X. & Gooi, H.B. & Wang, M.Q., 2013. "Solar radiation forecast based on fuzzy logic and neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 195-201.
    4. Chu, Yinghao & Li, Mengying & Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2015. "Real-time prediction intervals for intra-hour DNI forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 234-244.
    5. Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2015. "Nearest-neighbor methodology for prediction of intra-hour global horizontal and direct normal irradiances," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 770-782.
    6. Chaabene, Maher & Ben Ammar, Mohsen, 2008. "Neuro-fuzzy dynamic model with Kalman filter to forecast irradiance and temperature for solar energy systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1435-1443.
    7. Tapakis, R. & Charalambides, A.G., 2014. "Enhanced values of global irradiance due to the presence of clouds in Eastern Mediterranean," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 459-467.
    8. Sinha, S & Kumar, Sanjay & Matsumoto, Tsuyoshi & Kojima, Toshinori, 2001. "Application of system identification modelling to solar hybrid systems for predicting radiation, temperature and load," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 281-286.
    9. García-Domingo, B. & Piliougine, M. & Elizondo, D. & Aguilera, J., 2015. "CPV module electric characterisation by artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 173-181.
    10. Singh, G.K., 2013. "Solar power generation by PV (photovoltaic) technology: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-13.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lima, Marcello Anderson F.B. & Carvalho, Paulo C.M. & Fernández-Ramírez, Luis M. & Braga, Arthur P.S., 2020. "Improving solar forecasting using Deep Learning and Portfolio Theory integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    2. Huang, Xiaoqiao & Li, Qiong & Tai, Yonghang & Chen, Zaiqing & Zhang, Jun & Shi, Junsheng & Gao, Bixuan & Liu, Wuming, 2021. "Hybrid deep neural model for hourly solar irradiance forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1041-1060.
    3. Chu, Yinghao & Li, Mengying & Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2022. "A network of sky imagers for spatial solar irradiance assessment," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 1009-1019.
    4. Chen, Shanlin & Li, Chengxi & Xie, Yuying & Li, Mengying, 2023. "Global and direct solar irradiance estimation using deep learning and selected spectral satellite images," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    5. Joos, Michael & Staffell, Iain, 2018. "Short-term integration costs of variable renewable energy: Wind curtailment and balancing in Britain and Germany," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 45-65.
    6. Rodríguez, Fermín & Galarza, Ainhoa & Vasquez, Juan C. & Guerrero, Josep M., 2022. "Using deep learning and meteorological parameters to forecast the photovoltaic generators intra-hour output power interval for smart grid control," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    7. Lin, Fan & Zhang, Yao & Wang, Jianxue, 2023. "Recent advances in intra-hour solar forecasting: A review of ground-based sky image methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 244-265.
    8. Chen, Shanlin & Li, Mengying, 2022. "Improved turbidity estimation from local meteorological data for solar resourcing and forecasting applications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 259-272.
    9. Chu, Yinghao & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2017. "Short-term probabilistic forecasts for Direct Normal Irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 526-536.
    10. Manoel Henriques de Sá Campos & Chigueru Tiba, 2020. "Global Horizontal Irradiance Modeling for All Sky Conditions Using an Image-Pixel Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Chen, Shanlin & Liang, Zhaojian & Dong, Peixin & Guo, Su & Li, Mengying, 2023. "A transferable turbidity estimation method for estimating clear-sky solar irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 635-644.
    12. Paletta, Quentin & Hu, Anthony & Arbod, Guillaume & Lasenby, Joan, 2022. "ECLIPSE: Envisioning CLoud Induced Perturbations in Solar Energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    13. Guo, Su & Liu, Deyou & Chen, Xingying & Chu, Yinghao & Xu, Chang & Liu, Qunming & Zhou, Ling, 2017. "Model and control scheme for recirculation mode direct steam generation parabolic trough solar power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 700-714.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chu, Yinghao & Li, Mengying & Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2015. "Real-time prediction intervals for intra-hour DNI forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 234-244.
    2. Chu, Yinghao & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2017. "Short-term probabilistic forecasts for Direct Normal Irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 526-536.
    3. Chu, Yinghao & Li, Mengying & Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2022. "A network of sky imagers for spatial solar irradiance assessment," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 1009-1019.
    4. Larson, David P. & Nonnenmacher, Lukas & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Day-ahead forecasting of solar power output from photovoltaic plants in the American Southwest," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 11-20.
    5. Suganthi, L. & Iniyan, S. & Samuel, Anand A., 2015. "Applications of fuzzy logic in renewable energy systems – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 585-607.
    6. Zhu, Tingting & Wei, Haikun & Zhao, Xin & Zhang, Chi & Zhang, Kanjian, 2017. "Clear-sky model for wavelet forecast of direct normal irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-8.
    7. Carlo Renno, 2021. "Experimental Comparison between Spherical and Refractive Optics in a Concentrating Photovoltaic System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-15, July.
    8. Chih-Chiang Wei, 2019. "Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power Generation by Using Deep Learning in Solar Panels Installed in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    9. Li, Mengying & Chu, Yinghao & Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Quantitative evaluation of the impact of cloud transmittance and cloud velocity on the accuracy of short-term DNI forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1362-1371.
    10. Heo, Jae & Jung, Jaehoon & Kim, Byungil & Han, SangUk, 2020. "Digital elevation model-based convolutional neural network modeling for searching of high solar energy regions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    11. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Kalogirou, Soteris & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Paoli, Christophe & Motte, Fabrice & Fouilloy, Alexis, 2017. "Machine learning methods for solar radiation forecasting: A review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 569-582.
    12. Carlo Renno & Alessandro Perone & Diana D’Agostino & Francesco Minichiello, 2021. "Experimental and Economic Analysis of a Concentrating Photovoltaic System Applied to Users of Increasing Size," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-18, August.
    13. Rajanna, S. & Saini, R.P., 2016. "Modeling of integrated renewable energy system for electrification of a remote area in India," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 175-187.
    14. Aste, Niccolò & Del Pero, Claudio & Leonforte, Fabrizio & Manfren, Massimiliano, 2013. "A simplified model for the estimation of energy production of PV systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 503-512.
    15. Fouad Agramelal & Mohamed Sadik & Youssef Moubarak & Saad Abouzahir, 2023. "Smart Street Light Control: A Review on Methods, Innovations, and Extended Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-42, November.
    16. Liu, Shen & Colson, Gregory & Hao, Na & Wetzstein, Michael, 2018. "Toward an optimal household solar subsidy: A social-technical approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 377-387.
    17. Guan, Yanling & Zhang, Hao & Xiao, Bin & Zhou, Zhi & Yan, Xuzhou, 2017. "In-situ investigation of the effect of dust deposition on the performance of polycrystalline silicon photovoltaic modules," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1273-1284.
    18. Kamjoo, Azadeh & Maheri, Alireza & Putrus, Ghanim A., 2014. "Chance constrained programming using non-Gaussian joint distribution function in design of standalone hybrid renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 677-688.
    19. Mohanty, Sthitapragyan & Patra, Prashanta K. & Sahoo, Sudhansu S. & Mohanty, Asit, 2017. "Forecasting of solar energy with application for a growing economy like India: Survey and implication," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 539-553.
    20. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "A Green Energy Application in Energy Management Systems by an Artificial Intelligence-Based Solar Radiation Forecasting Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:96:y:2016:i:pa:p:792-799. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.