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Neuro-fuzzy dynamic model with Kalman filter to forecast irradiance and temperature for solar energy systems

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  • Chaabene, Maher
  • Ben Ammar, Mohsen

Abstract

This paper introduces a dynamic forecasting of irradiance and ambient temperature. The medium term forecasting (MTF) gives a daily meteorological behaviour. It consists of a neuro-fuzzy estimator based on meteorological parameters’ behaviours during the days before, and on time distribution models. As for the short term forecasting (STF), it estimates, for a 5min time step ahead, the meteorological parameters evolution. It is ensured by the Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) model of the MTF associated to a Kalman filter. STF uses instantaneous measured data, delivered by a data acquisition system, so as to accomplish the forecast. Herein we describe our method and we present forecasting results. Validation is based on measurements taken at the Energy and Thermal Research Centre (CRTEn) in the north of Tunisia. Since our work delivers accurate meteorological parameters forecasting, the obtained results can be easily adapted to forecast any solar conversion system output.

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  • Chaabene, Maher & Ben Ammar, Mohsen, 2008. "Neuro-fuzzy dynamic model with Kalman filter to forecast irradiance and temperature for solar energy systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1435-1443.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:33:y:2008:i:7:p:1435-1443
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2007.10.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chaabane, M & Ben Djemaa, A, 2002. "Use of HR Meteosat images for the mapping of global solar irradiation in Tunisia: preliminary results and comparison with Wefax images," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 139-151.
    2. Mellit, A. & Benghanem, M. & Kalogirou, S.A., 2006. "An adaptive wavelet-network model for forecasting daily total solar-radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(7), pages 705-722, July.
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    4. Li, Danny H.W. & Cheung, Gary H.W., 2005. "Study of models for predicting the diffuse irradiance on inclined surfaces," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 170-186, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Voyant, Cyril & Paoli, Christophe & Muselli, Marc & Nivet, Marie-Laure, 2013. "Multi-horizon solar radiation forecasting for Mediterranean locations using time series models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 44-52.
    2. Cheng, Hsu-Yung & Yu, Chih-Chang & Lin, Chih-Lung, 2021. "Day-ahead to week-ahead solar irradiance prediction using convolutional long short-term memory networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 2300-2308.
    3. Chu, Yinghao & Li, Mengying & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Sun-tracking imaging system for intra-hour DNI forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA), pages 792-799.
    4. Cheng, Hsu-Yung, 2016. "Hybrid solar irradiance now-casting by fusing Kalman filter and regressor," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 434-441.
    5. Chu, Yinghao & Li, Mengying & Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2015. "Real-time prediction intervals for intra-hour DNI forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 234-244.
    6. Voyant, Cyril & Muselli, Marc & Paoli, Christophe & Nivet, Marie-Laure, 2013. "Hybrid methodology for hourly global radiation forecasting in Mediterranean area," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-11.
    7. Ammar, Mohsen Ben & Chaabene, Maher & Elhajjaji, Ahmed, 2010. "Daily energy planning of a household photovoltaic panel," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(7), pages 2340-2351, July.
    8. Ben Ammar, Rim & Ben Ammar, Mohsen & Oualha, Abdelmajid, 2020. "Photovoltaic power forecast using empirical models and artificial intelligence approaches for water pumping systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 1016-1028.
    9. Ines Sansa & Zina Boussaada & Najiba Mrabet Bellaaj, 2021. "Solar Radiation Prediction Using a Novel Hybrid Model of ARMA and NARX," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-26, October.
    10. Subramanian Vasantharaj & Vairavasundaram Indragandhi & Vairavasundaram Subramaniyaswamy & Yuvaraja Teekaraman & Ramya Kuppusamy & Srete Nikolovski, 2021. "Efficient Control of DC Microgrid with Hybrid PV—Fuel Cell and Energy Storage Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, June.
    11. Cheng, Hsu-Yung, 2017. "Cloud tracking using clusters of feature points for accurate solar irradiance nowcasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 281-289.
    12. Sallem, Souhir & Chaabene, Maher & Kamoun, M.B.A., 2009. "Energy management algorithm for an optimum control of a photovoltaic water pumping system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(12), pages 2671-2680, December.
    13. Gairaa, Kacem & Khellaf, Abdallah & Messlem, Youcef & Chellali, Farouk, 2016. "Estimation of the daily global solar radiation based on Box–Jenkins and ANN models: A combined approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 238-249.
    14. Voyant, Cyril & Motte, Fabrice & Fouilloy, Alexis & Notton, Gilles & Paoli, Christophe & Nivet, Marie-Laure, 2017. "Forecasting method for global radiation time series without training phase: Comparison with other well-known prediction methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 199-208.
    15. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Kalogirou, Soteris & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Paoli, Christophe & Motte, Fabrice & Fouilloy, Alexis, 2017. "Machine learning methods for solar radiation forecasting: A review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 569-582.
    16. Suganthi, L. & Iniyan, S. & Samuel, Anand A., 2015. "Applications of fuzzy logic in renewable energy systems – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 585-607.
    17. Larson, David P. & Nonnenmacher, Lukas & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Day-ahead forecasting of solar power output from photovoltaic plants in the American Southwest," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 11-20.

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