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Techno-economic analysis of sugarcane bagasse and straw conversion into cellulosic ethanol via consolidated bioprocessing

Author

Listed:
  • Zambello, Isabela U.
  • Vaz, Luisa P.
  • Junqueira, Tassia L.
  • Kubis, Matthew R.
  • Lynd, Lee R.

Abstract

Cellulosic biofuels offer a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels and a means to mitigate climate change. Consolidated bioprocessing (CBP) featuring engineered thermophilic bacteria, combined with mechanical disruption during fermentation (cotreatment), has potential to lower production costs compared to featuring thermochemical pretreatment and added cellulase. A techno-economic analysis was conducted (230 million L ethanol/year) from sugarcane bagasse and straw at stand-alone facilities generating electricity from residues. Three scenarios were evaluated: Conventional, featuring hydrothermal pretreatment, fungal cellulase, and yeast fermentation (current commercial standard); Mid-term CBP, relying on bagasse solubilization without pretreatment or cotreatment; and Mature CBP, incorporating cotreatment but no pretreatment. Results for these scenarios in this order were: fixed capital investment (CapEx) $589M, $658M, and $472M; net annual revenue (EBITDA) $56M, $96M, and $94M; and minimum ethanol selling price 0.73, 0.61, and 0.48 US$/L. Payback periods were 10.5, 6.9, and 5.1 years, while all scenarios showed <5 years at European prices for scales >100M L/year. Sensitivity and risk analysis highlighted ethanol price as the most critical variable. It is notable that Mid-term CBP had shorter payback times and better overall economic feasibility compared to Conventional. Our results underscore opportunities for research-driven innovation on low-cost cellulosic ethanol technologies in Brazil and elsewhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Zambello, Isabela U. & Vaz, Luisa P. & Junqueira, Tassia L. & Kubis, Matthew R. & Lynd, Lee R., 2026. "Techno-economic analysis of sugarcane bagasse and straw conversion into cellulosic ethanol via consolidated bioprocessing," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:259:y:2026:i:c:s0960148125027582
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.125094
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