Carbon peak scenario prediction in universities: Policy intensity and key strategies in China

Due to the significant proportion of carbon emissions from higher education institutions in the entire society, the Chinese government has introduced a series of energy policies to control the emissions on university campuses in order to achieve national carbon reduction goals. This study addresses the critical gap in understanding policy effectiveness on campus carbon mitigation by developing the University Campus Demand Energy Analysis Model (UCDEAM), which is a LEAP-based framework tailored for Chinese universities. Through scenario analysis across 31 provinces, we demonstrate that current policies will fail to achieve emission peaking by 2030, with campus emissions projected to grow continuously under business-as-usual conditions. The results show: (1) combining 80 % building energy saving rates with 16 % renewable energy replacement rates could enable meeting the 2030 peaking target; (2) current policies yield significantly greater emission reductions in heating-intensive campuses within cold/severe cold regions compared to other zones; and (3) scientific and technological innovation could deliver 60.34 billion tons of direct emission reductions by 2060. These results provide actionable pathways for aligning campus operations with China's "dual carbon” goals.