Medium and long-term energy demand forecasting in the Yangtze River Delta based on the LEAP-SJZA model under the "dual carbon" goals

As a key region of China's energy transition, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) requires medium and long-term energy demand forecasting to achieve the "dual-carbon" goal. Based on current economic and social development, as well as energy consumption, the LEAP-SJZA model is constructed to create a baseline, low-carbon, integrated, and comprehensive scenarios, forecasting total energy demand, end-use industries, and end-use energy categories from 2023 to 2060. The results show that (1) Total energy demand in YRD exhibits an "inverted U-shape," with the baseline, collaborative industrial innovation, and clean energy substitution scenarios peaking in 2039 and the low-carbon technology sharing and comprehensive scenarios peaking in 2029. (2) The contribution rate of energy conservation and emission reduction is comprehensive scenario > low-carbon technology sharing scenario > collaborative industrial innovation scenario > clean energy substitution scenario > baseline scenario. (3) Industry is the largest energy-demanding sector, except transportation, where energy demand is rising in the short term. (4) The energy system is shifting towards greater electrification, with the share of electricity in end-use energy demand exceeding 42 % in all scenarios in 2060. Finally, it proposes medium- and long-term energy development countermeasures to promote high-quality, integrated regional development.