Reduction of aggregate wind power variability using Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections: An application in the Iberian Peninsula

In this work, the ability of the Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections technique to provide useful information for decisions on wind capacity allocation aimed at enhanced output stability is explored. Using data from a high-resolution simulation with the regional climate model REMO over the Iberian Peninsula, the performance of Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections is assessed against the outcome of random wind farm siting, and also against an alternative procedure employing Principal Component Analysis. Results show that siting informed by the Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections methodology leads to increased probabilities of achieving higher firm capacities and lower output variance, improving not only the random allocation, but that given by the Principal Component Analysis procedure as well. The benefits stem from the smoothing effect of aggregating the output from wind farms located within specific areas identified by our technique. Our appraisal also considers the spatial extent of the areas made available to the siting choice, as well as the effects on the capacity factor. Being a comparatively inexpensive technique, Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections offers good prospects for further diagnosis of the wind intermittency problem and its mitigation through spatial aggregation, and also as a preliminary, dimension reductive assessment for the application of more computationally demanding methods.