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A comprehensive framework for estimating the remaining useful life of Li-ion batteries under limited data conditions with no temporal identifier

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  • Lopez-Salazar, Camilo
  • Ekwaro-Osire, Stephen
  • Dabetwar, Shweta
  • Alemayehu, Fisseha

Abstract

The escalating applications of Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries in renewable energy and electric vehicles underscore the need for enhanced prognostics and health management systems to reduce the risk of sudden failures. Remaining useful life (RUL) determination is one of the most critical tasks in the field of battery prognostics nowadays. Even though statistical and machine learning (ML) methods have proven effective in research setups, many challenges prevent applying these prediction methods to real-life scenarios. These challenges include (1) scarcity of run-to-failure datasets with similar experimental conditions, (2) low data granularity when presented in capacity vs. discharge cycle pairs, and (3) lack of “temporal identifiers†in real-life scenarios. A temporal identifier is any label that provides knowledge about the current degradation state of a working battery. The research question developed for this study was, ‘Can the remaining useful life of a Li-ion battery having limited data without a temporal identifier be predicted?’ The specific aims were to estimate the temporal identifier of limited data and to predict the remaining useful life (RUL). An innovative framework incorporating reliability analysis and deep learning addresses these specific aims. Experimental data is used to test the framework's capabilities, limiting the training dataset to only three batteries and the testing dataset to a small sample (< 10 data points) of another battery. This new approach enabled the RUL prediction to achieve errors as low as ∼5 cycles and root mean square error of 6.24 cycles, outperforming other benchmark studies on Li-ion battery RUL prediction that use more battery degradation data without temporal identifier.

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  • Lopez-Salazar, Camilo & Ekwaro-Osire, Stephen & Dabetwar, Shweta & Alemayehu, Fisseha, 2025. "A comprehensive framework for estimating the remaining useful life of Li-ion batteries under limited data conditions with no temporal identifier," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:253:y:2025:i:c:s0951832024005891
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110517
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    3. Li, Ziyuan & Han, Yu & Peng, Weiwen, 2026. "Lifetime Early Prediction for Second-Life Lithium-Ion Battery: A Hierarchical Bayesian Learning Method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 265(PA).
    4. Duan, Chaoqun & Cao, Hengrui & Liu, Fuqiang & Duan, Xuelian & Pu, Huayan & Luo, Jun, 2025. "An interactive prognostics framework for lithium-ion battery remaining useful life based on neural networks and statistical processes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 264(PB).
    5. Nian, Sirui & Kang, Wenda & Wen, Yingqian & Du, Zibing & Wang, Dianpeng, 2026. "Health index-based remaining useful life prediction using functional principal component analysis with multivariate sensor data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    6. Chen, Xiaowu & Liu, Zhen & Wu, Kunping & Sheng, Hanmin & Cheng, Yuhua, 2025. "Remaining useful life prediction using a hybrid transfer learning-based adaptive Wiener process model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    7. Wang, Yaxuan & Guo, Shilong & Cui, Yue & Deng, Liang & Zhao, Lei & Li, Junfu & Wang, Zhenbo, 2025. "A comprehensive review of machine learning-based state of health estimation for lithium-ion batteries: data, features, algorithms, and future challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).

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