IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v239y2023ics0951832023004398.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Resilience analysis for confronting the spreading risk of contagious diseases

Author

Listed:
  • Liang, Zhenglin
  • Jiang, Chen
  • Sun, Muxia
  • Xue, Zongqi
  • Li, Yan-Fu

Abstract

Spreading risks of contagious diseases have threatened human lives and disrupted the global economy. Protecting humanity from contagious diseases, such as coronavirus, is a critical task of our time. Unlike other types of risks, the spreading of contagious diseases could be enhanced by human movements. As human movements are inherently dynamic and heterogenous, it brings challenges in analyzing the spreading on a large scale. Here, we combine network theory and epidemiology models to construct a SIRN model for capturing spatiotemporal characteristics of spreading risks. With mean-field theory and Lyapunov theorem, our model reveals the relation between spreading risk and the network topology of human movement. The model allows us to construct a resilient strategy to control and contain the risk. The approach is tested retrospectively with coronavirus cases in China and the United States. Our results adequately interpret the historical trends and justify the resilience of nations’ strategies. The model demonstrates a pattern of resilience in dynamic networks, which could shed light on handling contagious risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Liang, Zhenglin & Jiang, Chen & Sun, Muxia & Xue, Zongqi & Li, Yan-Fu, 2023. "Resilience analysis for confronting the spreading risk of contagious diseases," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:239:y:2023:i:c:s0951832023004398
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109525
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832023004398
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2023.109525?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zio, Enrico & Mustafayeva, Maryam & Montanaro, Andrea, 2022. "A Bayesian Belief Network Model for the Risk Assessment and Management of Premature Screen-Out during Hydraulic Fracturing," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    2. Tabandeh, Armin & Sharma, Neetesh & Gardoni, Paolo, 2022. "Uncertainty propagation in risk and resilience analysis of hierarchical systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    3. Jianxi Gao & Baruch Barzel & Albert-László Barabási, 2016. "Erratum: Universal resilience patterns in complex networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 536(7615), pages 238-238, August.
    4. Aven, Terje & Zio, Enrico, 2021. "Globalization and global risk: How risk analysis needs to be enhanced to be effective in confronting current threats," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    5. Jianxi Gao & Baruch Barzel & Albert-László Barabási, 2016. "Universal resilience patterns in complex networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 530(7590), pages 307-312, February.
    6. Shengjie Lai & Nick W. Ruktanonchai & Liangcai Zhou & Olivia Prosper & Wei Luo & Jessica R. Floyd & Amy Wesolowski & Mauricio Santillana & Chi Zhang & Xiangjun Du & Hongjie Yu & Andrew J. Tatem, 2020. "Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 585(7825), pages 410-413, September.
    7. Serina Chang & Emma Pierson & Pang Wei Koh & Jaline Gerardin & Beth Redbird & David Grusky & Jure Leskovec, 2021. "Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening," Nature, Nature, vol. 589(7840), pages 82-87, January.
    8. Manon Ragonnet-Cronin & Olivia Boyd & Lily Geidelberg & David Jorgensen & Fabricia F. Nascimento & Igor Siveroni & Robert A. Johnson & Marc Baguelin & Zulma M. Cucunubá & Elita Jauneikaite & Swapnil M, 2021. "Genetic evidence for the association between COVID-19 epidemic severity and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-7, December.
    9. Sharma, Neetesh & Gardoni, Paolo, 2022. "Mathematical modeling of interdependent infrastructure: An object-oriented approach for generalized network-system analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    10. Seth Flaxman & Swapnil Mishra & Axel Gandy & H. Juliette T. Unwin & Thomas A. Mellan & Helen Coupland & Charles Whittaker & Harrison Zhu & Tresnia Berah & Jeffrey W. Eaton & Mélodie Monod & Azra C. Gh, 2020. "Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7820), pages 257-261, August.
    11. Meng, Xueyu & Han, Sijie & Wu, Leilei & Si, Shubin & Cai, Zhiqiang, 2022. "Analysis of epidemic vaccination strategies by node importance and evolutionary game on complex networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    12. Nicolò Gozzi & Michele Tizzoni & Matteo Chinazzi & Leo Ferres & Alessandro Vespignani & Nicola Perra, 2021. "Estimating the effect of social inequalities on the mitigation of COVID-19 across communities in Santiago de Chile," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    13. Fabio Della Rossa & Davide Salzano & Anna Di Meglio & Francesco De Lellis & Marco Coraggio & Carmela Calabrese & Agostino Guarino & Ricardo Cardona-Rivera & Pietro De Lellis & Davide Liuzza & Francesc, 2020. "A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    14. T. Beaney & A. L. Neves & A. Alboksmaty & H. Ashrafian & K. Flott & A. Fowler & J. R. Benger & P. Aylin & S. Elkin & A. Darzi & J. Clarke, 2022. "Trends and associated factors for Covid-19 hospitalisation and fatality risk in 2.3 million adults in England," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    15. Kammouh, Omar & Gardoni, Paolo & Cimellaro, Gian Paolo, 2020. "Probabilistic framework to evaluate the resilience of engineering systems using Bayesian and dynamic Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    16. Zheng, Xiao-Wei & Li, Hong-Nan & Gardoni, Paolo, 2023. "Hybrid Bayesian-Copula-based risk assessment for tall buildings subject to wind loads considering various uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    17. Francisco J. Zagmutt & Mark A. Schoenbaum & Ashley E. Hill, 2016. "The Impact of Population, Contact, and Spatial Heterogeneity on Epidemic Model Predictions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(5), pages 939-953, May.
    18. Jayson S. Jia & Xin Lu & Yun Yuan & Ge Xu & Jianmin Jia & Nicholas A. Christakis, 2020. "Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 582(7812), pages 389-394, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hao, Yucheng & Jia, Limin & Zio, Enrico & Wang, Yanhui & Small, Michael & Li, Man, 2023. "Improving resilience of high-speed train by optimizing repair strategies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    2. Wang, Peipei & Liu, Haiyan & Zheng, Xinqi & Ma, Ruifang, 2023. "A new method for spatio-temporal transmission prediction of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Liang, Zhenglin & Li, Yan-Fu, 2023. "Holistic Resilience and Reliability Measures for Cellular Telecommunication Networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    4. Moglen, Rachel L. & Barth, Julius & Gupta, Shagun & Kawai, Eiji & Klise, Katherine & Leibowicz, Benjamin D., 2023. "A nexus approach to infrastructure resilience planning under uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    5. Lin Chen & Fengli Xu & Zhenyu Han & Kun Tang & Pan Hui & James Evans & Yong Li, 2022. "Strategic COVID-19 vaccine distribution can simultaneously elevate social utility and equity," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1503-1514, November.
    6. Meng, Xin & Guo, Mingxue & Gao, Ziyou & Kang, Liujiang, 2023. "Interaction between travel restriction policies and the spread of COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 209-227.
    7. Tianyi Li & Jiawen Luo & Cunrui Huang, 2021. "Urban Epidemic Hazard Index for Chinese Cities: Why Did Small Cities Become Epidemic Hotspots?," Papers 2103.05189, arXiv.org.
    8. Pelagatti, Matteo & Maranzano, Paolo, 2021. "Assessing the effectiveness of the Italian risk-zones policy during the second wave of COVID-19," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(9), pages 1188-1199.
    9. Yang, Bofan & Zhang, Lin & Zhang, Bo & Xiang, Yang & An, Lei & Wang, Wenfeng, 2022. "Complex equipment system resilience: Composition, measurement and element analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    10. Dongli, Duan & Chengxing, Wu & Yuchen, Zhai & Changchun, Lv & Ning, Wang, 2022. "Coexistence mechanism of alien species and local ecosystem based on network dimensionality reduction method," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    11. Duan, Wenqi & Madasi, Joseph David & Khurshid, Adnan & Ma, Dan, 2022. "Industrial structure conditions economic resilience," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    12. Hou, Gege & Bai, Lei & Si, Shubin, 2023. "Ecosystem resilience and stability analysis against alien species invasion patterns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 619(C).
    13. X. Angela Yao & Andrew Crooks & Bin Jiang & Jukka Krisp & Xintao Liu & Haosheng Huang, 2023. "An overview of urban analytical approaches to combating the Covid-19 pandemic," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(5), pages 1133-1143, June.
    14. Liu, Siyuan & Zhang, Chunyan & Li, Kun & Zhang, Jianlei, 2022. "Exploring the inducement for social dilemma and cooperation promotion mechanisms in structured populations," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    15. Xiaoyan Mu & Anthony Gar-On Yeh & Xiaohu Zhang, 2021. "The interplay of spatial spread of COVID-19 and human mobility in the urban system of China during the Chinese New Year," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(7), pages 1955-1971, September.
    16. Gangwal, Utkarsh & Singh, Mayank & Pandey, Pradumn Kumar & Kamboj, Deepak & Chatterjee, Samrat & Bhatia, Udit, 2022. "Identifying early-warning indicators of onset of sudden collapse in networked infrastructure systems against sequential disruptions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 591(C).
    17. Wan, Jinming & Ichinose, Genki & Small, Michael & Sayama, Hiroki & Moreno, Yamir & Cheng, Changqing, 2022. "Multilayer networks with higher-order interaction reveal the impact of collective behavior on epidemic dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    18. Gorji, Mohammad-Ali & Shetab-Boushehri, Seyyed-Nader & Akbarzadeh, Meisam, 2022. "Developing public transportation resilience against the epidemic through government tax policies: A game-theoretic approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 229-239.
    19. Mühlhofer, Evelyn & Koks, Elco E. & Kropf, Chahan M. & Sansavini, Giovanni & Bresch, David N., 2023. "A generalized natural hazard risk modelling framework for infrastructure failure cascades," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    20. Xiaoyan Mu & Xiaohu Zhang & Anthony Gar-On Yeh & Yang Yu & Jiejing Wang, 2023. "Structural Changes in Human Mobility Under the Zero-COVID Strategy in China," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 50(9), pages 2527-2542, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:239:y:2023:i:c:s0951832023004398. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.