IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v193y2020ics0951832019302169.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The sensitivity of electric power infrastructure resilience to the spatial distribution of disaster impacts

Author

Listed:
  • Rachunok, Benjamin
  • Nateghi, Roshanak

Abstract

Credibly assessing the resilience of energy infrastructure in the face of natural disasters is a salient concern facing researchers, government officials, and community members. Here, we explore the influence of the spatial distribution of disruptions due to hurricanes and other natural hazards on the resilience of power distribution systems. We find that incorporating information about the spatial distribution of disaster impacts has significant implications for estimating infrastructure resilience. Specifically, the uncertainty associated with estimated infrastructure resilience metrics to spatially distributed disaster-induced disruptions is much higher than determined by previous methods. We present a case study of an electric power distribution grid impacted by a major landfalling hurricane. We show that improved characterizations of disaster disruption drastically change the way in which the grid recovers, including changes in emergent system properties such as antifragility. Our work demonstrates that previous methods for estimating critical infrastructure resilience may be overstating the confidence associated with estimated network recoveries due to the lack of consideration of the spatial structure of disruptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Rachunok, Benjamin & Nateghi, Roshanak, 2020. "The sensitivity of electric power infrastructure resilience to the spatial distribution of disaster impacts," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:193:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019302169
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106658
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832019302169
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2019.106658?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sybil Derrible, 2017. "Complexity in future cities: the rise of networked infrastructure," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(0), pages 68-86, August.
    2. Terje Aven, 2015. "The Concept of Antifragility and its Implications for the Practice of Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(3), pages 476-483, March.
    3. Praks, Pavel & Kopustinskas, Vytis & Masera, Marcelo, 2015. "Probabilistic modelling of security of supply in gas networks and evaluation of new infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 254-264.
    4. Jianxi Gao & Baruch Barzel & Albert-László Barabási, 2016. "Universal resilience patterns in complex networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 530(7590), pages 307-312, February.
    5. Igor Linkov & Todd Bridges & Felix Creutzig & Jennifer Decker & Cate Fox-Lent & Wolfgang Kröger & James H. Lambert & Anders Levermann & Benoit Montreuil & Jatin Nathwani & Raymond Nyer & Ortwin Renn &, 2014. "Changing the resilience paradigm," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(6), pages 407-409, June.
    6. Booker, Graham & Torres, Jacob & Guikema, Seth & Sprintson, Alex & Brumbelow, Kelly, 2010. "Estimating cellular network performance during hurricanes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(4), pages 337-344.
    7. Nurre, Sarah G. & Cavdaroglu, Burak & Mitchell, John E. & Sharkey, Thomas C. & Wallace, William A., 2012. "Restoring infrastructure systems: An integrated network design and scheduling (INDS) problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 223(3), pages 794-806.
    8. Rae Zimmerman & Quanyan Zhu & Carolyn Dimitri, 2016. "Promoting resilience for food, energy, and water interdependencies," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 6(1), pages 50-61, March.
    9. Ian Dobson, 2016. "Electricity grid: When the lights go out," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 1(5), pages 1-2, May.
    10. Mukherjee, Sayanti & Nateghi, Roshanak & Hastak, Makarand, 2018. "A multi-hazard approach to assess severe weather-induced major power outage risks in the U.S," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 283-305.
    11. Nan, Cen & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2017. "A quantitative method for assessing resilience of interdependent infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 35-53.
    12. Barker, Kash & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel & Rocco, Claudio M., 2013. "Resilience-based network component importance measures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 89-97.
    13. Andrea Staid & Seth Guikema & Roshanak Nateghi & Steven Quiring & Michael Gao, 2014. "Simulation of tropical cyclone impacts to the U.S. power system under climate change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 535-546, December.
    14. Roger Flage & Terje Aven & Enrico Zio & Piero Baraldi, 2014. "Concerns, Challenges, and Directions of Development for the Issue of Representing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(7), pages 1196-1207, July.
    15. Roshanak Nateghi & Seth D. Guikema & Steven M. Quiring, 2011. "Comparison and Validation of Statistical Methods for Predicting Power Outage Durations in the Event of Hurricanes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(12), pages 1897-1906, December.
    16. Weiman Sun & An Zeng, 2017. "Target recovery in complex networks," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 90(1), pages 1-6, January.
    17. Sergey V. Buldyrev & Roni Parshani & Gerald Paul & H. Eugene Stanley & Shlomo Havlin, 2010. "Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7291), pages 1025-1028, April.
    18. Fang, Yi-Ping & Zio, Enrico, 2019. "An adaptive robust framework for the optimization of the resilience of interdependent infrastructures under natural hazards," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(3), pages 1119-1136.
    19. Chuanyi Ji & Yun Wei & Henry Mei & Jorge Calzada & Matthew Carey & Steve Church & Timothy Hayes & Brian Nugent & Gregory Stella & Matthew Wallace & Joe White & Robert Wilcox, 2016. "Large-scale data analysis of power grid resilience across multiple US service regions," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 1(5), pages 1-8, May.
    20. Ouyang, Min, 2014. "Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 43-60.
    21. Ouyang, Min, 2017. "A mathematical framework to optimize resilience of interdependent critical infrastructure systems under spatially localized attacks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(3), pages 1072-1084.
    22. J. Park & T. P. Seager & P. S. C. Rao & M. Convertino & I. Linkov, 2013. "Integrating Risk and Resilience Approaches to Catastrophe Management in Engineering Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 356-367, March.
    23. Christopher N. Kaiser-Bunbury & James Mougal & Andrew E. Whittington & Terence Valentin & Ronny Gabriel & Jens M. Olesen & Nico Blüthgen, 2017. "Ecosystem restoration strengthens pollination network resilience and function," Nature, Nature, vol. 542(7640), pages 223-227, February.
    24. Han, Seung-Ryong & Guikema, Seth D. & Quiring, Steven M. & Lee, Kyung-Ho & Rosowsky, David & Davidson, Rachel A., 2009. "Estimating the spatial distribution of power outages during hurricanes in the Gulf coast region," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 199-210.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ennio Brugnetti & Guido Coletta & Fabrizio De Caro & Alfredo Vaccaro & Domenico Villacci, 2020. "Enabling Methodologies for Predictive Power System Resilience Analysis in the Presence of Extreme Wind Gusts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Youba Nait Belaid & Patrick Coudray & José Sanchez-Torres & Yi-Ping Fang & Zhiguo Zeng & Anne Barros, 2021. "Resilience Quantification of Smart Distribution Networks—A Bird’s Eye View Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-29, May.
    3. Dong, Shangjia & Gao, Xinyu & Mostafavi, Ali & Gao, Jianxi & Gangwal, Utkarsh, 2023. "Characterizing resilience of flood-disrupted dynamic transportation network through the lens of link reliability and stability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    4. Dong, Yuchen & Zheng, Weibo & Cao, Xiaoyu & Sun, Xunhang & He, Zhengwen, 2023. "Co-planning of hydrogen-based microgrids and fuel-cell bus operation centers under low-carbon and resilience considerations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    5. Umunnakwe, A. & Huang, H. & Oikonomou, K. & Davis, K.R., 2021. "Quantitative analysis of power systems resilience: Standardization, categorizations, and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Lee, Seulbi & Choi, Minji & Lee, Hyun-Soo & Park, Moonseo, 2020. "Bayesian network-based seismic damage estimation for power and potable water supply systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    7. Lu, Qin & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Integrating dynamic Bayesian network and physics-based modeling for risk analysis of a time-dependent power distribution system during hurricanes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    8. Mujjuni, F. & Betts, T. & To, L.S. & Blanchard, R.E., 2021. "Resilience a means to development: A resilience assessment framework and a catalogue of indicators," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kong, Jingjing & Zhang, Chao & Simonovic, Slobodan P., 2021. "Optimizing the resilience of interdependent infrastructures to regional natural hazards with combined improvement measures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    2. Fang, Yi-Ping & Zio, Enrico, 2019. "An adaptive robust framework for the optimization of the resilience of interdependent infrastructures under natural hazards," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(3), pages 1119-1136.
    3. Chao Fang & Piao Dong & Yi-Ping Fang & Enrico Zio, 2020. "Vulnerability analysis of critical infrastructure under disruptions: An application to China Railway High-speed," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(2), pages 235-245, April.
    4. Jingjing Kong & Slobodan P. Simonovic, 2019. "Probabilistic Multiple Hazard Resilience Model of an Interdependent Infrastructure System," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(8), pages 1843-1863, August.
    5. Das, Laya & Munikoti, Sai & Natarajan, Balasubramaniam & Srinivasan, Babji, 2020. "Measuring smart grid resilience: Methods, challenges and opportunities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    6. Bellè, Andrea & Abdin, Adam F. & Fang, Yi-Ping & Zeng, Zhiguo & Barros, Anne, 2023. "A resilience-based framework for the optimal coupling of interdependent critical infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    7. Bellè, Andrea & Abdin, Adam F. & Fang, Yi-Ping & Zeng, Zhiguo & Barros, Anne, 2023. "A data-driven distributionally robust approach for the optimal coupling of interdependent critical infrastructures under random failures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 872-889.
    8. Adrian J. Hickford & Simon P. Blainey & Alejandro Ortega Hortelano & Raghav Pant, 2018. "Resilience engineering: theory and practice in interdependent infrastructure systems," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 278-291, September.
    9. Hao, Yucheng & Jia, Limin & Zio, Enrico & Wang, Yanhui & Small, Michael & Li, Man, 2023. "Improving resilience of high-speed train by optimizing repair strategies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    10. Almoghathawi, Yasser & Barker, Kash & Albert, Laura A., 2019. "Resilience-driven restoration model for interdependent infrastructure networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 12-23.
    11. Zhou, Shenghua & Yang, Yifan & Ng, S. Thomas & Xu, J. Frank & Li, Dezhi, 2020. "Integrating data-driven and physics-based approaches to characterize failures of interdependent infrastructures," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    12. Liu, Xing & Fang, Yi-Ping & Zio, Enrico, 2021. "A Hierarchical Resilience Enhancement Framework for Interdependent Critical Infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    13. Jingjing Kong & Slobodan P. Simonovic & Chao Zhang, 2019. "Resilience Assessment of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems: A Case Study Based on Different Response Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-31, November.
    14. Goldbeck, Nils & Angeloudis, Panagiotis & Ochieng, Washington Y., 2019. "Resilience assessment for interdependent urban infrastructure systems using dynamic network flow models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 62-79.
    15. Cassottana, Beatrice & Shen, Lijuan & Tang, Loon Ching, 2019. "Modeling the recovery process: A key dimension of resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Youba Nait Belaid & Patrick Coudray & José Sanchez-Torres & Yi-Ping Fang & Zhiguo Zeng & Anne Barros, 2021. "Resilience Quantification of Smart Distribution Networks—A Bird’s Eye View Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-29, May.
    17. David J. Yu & Michael L. Schoon & Jason K. Hawes & Seungyoon Lee & Jeryang Park & P. Suresh C. Rao & Laura K. Siebeneck & Satish V. Ukkusuri, 2020. "Toward General Principles for Resilience Engineering," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(8), pages 1509-1537, August.
    18. Xu, Min & Li, Guoyuan & Chen, Anthony, 2024. "Resilience-driven post-disaster restoration of interdependent infrastructure systems under different decision-making environments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    19. Tiong, Achara & Vergara, Hector A., 2023. "Evaluation of network expansion decisions for resilient interdependent critical infrastructures with different topologies," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    20. Jingjing Kong & Slobodan P. Simonovic & Chao Zhang, 2019. "Sequential Hazards Resilience of Interdependent Infrastructure System: A Case Study of Greater Toronto Area Energy Infrastructure System," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(5), pages 1141-1168, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:193:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019302169. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.