IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v188y2019icp454-462.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Bayesian networks based approach for risk analysis of subsea wellhead fatigue failure during service life

Author

Listed:
  • Chang, Yuanjiang
  • Wu, Xiangfei
  • Zhang, Changshuai
  • Chen, Guoming
  • Liu, Xiuquan
  • Li, Jiayi
  • Cai, Baoping
  • Xu, Liangbin

Abstract

Subsea wellhead is a critical component of the drilling and production system in offshore oil and gas industry. Excited by cyclical fatigue loadings due to environmental forces, the wellhead is prone to fatigue failure, which could lead to the loss of well integrity and even catastrophic accidents. Although fatigue failure probability of the wellhead carries an elevated uncertainties, it will definitely increase with the accumulation of fatigue in wellhead. This paper presents a fatigue failure risk analysis approach based on dynamic Bayesian Networks, aiming to predict the fatigue failure probability of the wellhead during service life. The proposed model can use the previously accumulated fatigue of the wellhead to probabilistically predict the present failure risk under present dynamic conditions. The practical application of the developed model is demonstrated through a case study. Adopting the predictive, diagnostic analysis techniques in the Bayesian inference, the dynamic fatigue failure probability of the wellhead at any time slices was achieved, and the most influential factors were figured out. Finally, the corresponding safety control measures are proposed to effectively mitigate the fatigue failure risk of subsea wellhead during service life.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Yuanjiang & Wu, Xiangfei & Zhang, Changshuai & Chen, Guoming & Liu, Xiuquan & Li, Jiayi & Cai, Baoping & Xu, Liangbin, 2019. "Dynamic Bayesian networks based approach for risk analysis of subsea wellhead fatigue failure during service life," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 454-462.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:188:y:2019:i:c:p:454-462
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.03.040
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832018306069
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2019.03.040?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wu, Xianguo & Liu, Huitao & Zhang, Limao & Skibniewski, Miroslaw J. & Deng, Qianli & Teng, Jiaying, 2015. "A dynamic Bayesian network based approach to safety decision support in tunnel construction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 157-168.
    2. Ramírez, Pedro A. Pérez & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer, 2015. "Use of dynamic Bayesian networks for life extension assessment of ageing systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 119-136.
    3. Baoping Cai & Yonghong Liu & Zengkai Liu & Xiaojie Tian & Yanzhen Zhang & Renjie Ji, 2013. "Application of Bayesian Networks in Quantitative Risk Assessment of Subsea Blowout Preventer Operations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(7), pages 1293-1311, July.
    4. Yang, Yongsheng & Khan, Faisal & Thodi, Premkumar & Abbassi, Rouzbeh, 2017. "Corrosion induced failure analysis of subsea pipelines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 214-222.
    5. Khakzad, Nima & Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik, 2017. "Application of dynamic Bayesian network to performance assessment of fire protection systems during domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 232-247.
    6. Rebello, Sinda & Yu, Hongyang & Ma, Lin, 2018. "An integrated approach for system functional reliability assessment using Dynamic Bayesian Network and Hidden Markov Model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 124-135.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Özgür-Ünlüakın, Demet & Türkali, Busenur & Karacaörenli, Ayşe & Çağlar Aksezer, S., 2019. "A DBN based reactive maintenance model for a complex system in thermal power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Özgür-Ünlüakın, Demet & Türkali, Busenur, 2021. "Evaluation of proactive maintenance policies on a stochastically dependent hidden multi-component system using DBNs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    3. Bhardwaj, U. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Bayesian framework for reliability prediction of subsea processing systems accounting for influencing factors uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    4. Dongshi Sun & Di Guo & Danlan Xie, 2023. "Using Multicriteria Decision Making to Evaluate the Risk of Hydrogen Energy Storage and Transportation in Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-27, January.
    5. Zhiqiang Liu & Wenbo Zhu & Hongzhou Zhang & Shengjin Wang & Lu Fang & Weijun Hong & Hua Shao & Guopeng Wang, 2020. "Reliability evaluation of dynamic face recognition systems based on improved Fuzzy Dynamic Bayesian Network," International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, , vol. 16(3), pages 15501477209, March.
    6. Wang, Chuan & Liu, Yupeng & Wang, Dongbo & Wang, Guorong & Wang, Dingya & Yu, Chao, 2021. "Reliability evaluation method based on dynamic fault diagnosis results: A case study of a seabed mud lifting system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    7. Chen, Yinuo & Tian, Zhigang & He, Rui & Wang, Yifei & Xie, Shuyi, 2023. "Discovery of potential risks for the gas transmission station using monitoring data and the OOBN method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    8. Fam, Mei Ling & He, Xuhong & Konovessis, Dimitrios & Ong, Lin Seng, 2020. "Using Dynamic Bayesian Belief Network for analysing well decommissioning failures and long-term monitoring of decommissioned wells," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    9. Guo, Yunlong & Jin, Yongxing & Hu, Shenping & Yang, Zaili & Xi, Yongtao & Han, Bing, 2023. "Risk evolution analysis of ship pilotage operation by an integrated model of FRAM and DBN," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    10. Chuan Wang & Jun Gou & Yingcheng Tian & Hao Jin & Chao Yu & Yupeng Liu & Jiajun Ma & Yong Xia, 2022. "Reliability and availability evaluation of subsea high integrity pressure protection system using stochastic Petri net," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 236(3), pages 508-521, June.
    11. Adumene, Sidum & Khan, Faisal & Adedigba, Sunday & Zendehboudi, Sohrab & Shiri, Hodjat, 2021. "Dynamic risk analysis of marine and offshore systems suffering microbial induced stochastic degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    12. Cankaya, Burak & Topuz, Kazim & Delen, Dursun & Glassman, Aaron, 2023. "Evidence-based managerial decision-making with machine learning: The case of Bayesian inference in aviation incidents," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lewis, Austin D. & Groth, Katrina M., 2023. "A comparison of DBN model performance in SIPPRA health monitoring based on different data stream discretization methods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    2. Zhang, Mimi & Gaudoin, Olivier & Xie, Min, 2015. "Degradation-based maintenance decision using stochastic filtering for systems under imperfect maintenance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 245(2), pages 531-541.
    3. Sajid, Zaman, 2021. "A dynamic risk assessment model to assess the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the sustainability of the biomass supply chain: A case study of a U.S. biofuel industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Zhiqiang Liu & Wenbo Zhu & Hongzhou Zhang & Shengjin Wang & Lu Fang & Weijun Hong & Hua Shao & Guopeng Wang, 2020. "Reliability evaluation of dynamic face recognition systems based on improved Fuzzy Dynamic Bayesian Network," International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, , vol. 16(3), pages 15501477209, March.
    5. Chen, Chao & Yang, Ming & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "A dynamic stochastic methodology for quantifying HAZMAT storage resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    6. Pan, Yue & Ou, Shenwei & Zhang, Limao & Zhang, Wenjing & Wu, Xianguo & Li, Heng, 2019. "Modeling risks in dependent systems: A Copula-Bayesian approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 416-431.
    7. Hassan, Shamsu & Wang, Jin & Kontovas, Christos & Bashir, Musa, 2022. "An assessment of causes and failure likelihood of cross-country pipelines under uncertainty using bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    8. Sang-Guk Yum & Sungjin Ahn & Junseo Bae & Ji-Myong Kim, 2020. "Assessing the Risk of Natural Disaster-Induced Losses to Tunnel-Construction Projects Using Empirical Financial-Loss Data from South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-15, September.
    9. Wang, Zeyu & Shafieezadeh, Abdollah, 2020. "Real-time high-fidelity reliability updating with equality information using adaptive Kriging," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    10. Yaping Li & Enrico Zio & Ershun Pan, 2021. "An MEWMA-based segmental multivariate hidden Markov model for degradation assessment and prediction," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 235(5), pages 831-844, October.
    11. Liu, Huan & Tatano, Hirokazu & Pflug, Georg & Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan, 2021. "Post-disaster recovery in industrial sectors: A Markov process analysis of multiple lifeline disruptions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    12. Yu, Shui & Wang, Zhonglai & Zhang, Kewang, 2018. "Sequential time-dependent reliability analysis for the lower extremity exoskeleton under uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 45-52.
    13. Liu, Gehui & Chen, Shaokuan & Ho, Tinkin & Ran, Xinchen & Mao, Baohua & Lan, Zhen, 2022. "Optimum opportunistic maintenance schedule over variable horizons considering multi-stage degradation and dynamic strategy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    14. Khakzad, Nima, 2021. "Optimal firefighting to prevent domino effects: Methodologies based on dynamic influence diagram and mathematical programming," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    15. Rasoul Amirzadeh & Asef Nazari & Dhananjay Thiruvady & Mong Shan Ee, 2023. "Causal Feature Engineering of Price Directions of Cryptocurrencies using Dynamic Bayesian Networks," Papers 2306.08157, arXiv.org.
    16. Adumene, Sidum & Khan, Faisal & Adedigba, Sunday & Zendehboudi, Sohrab & Shiri, Hodjat, 2021. "Dynamic risk analysis of marine and offshore systems suffering microbial induced stochastic degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    17. Wang, Fan & Li, Heng & Dong, Chao & Ding, Lieyun, 2019. "Knowledge representation using non-parametric Bayesian networks for tunneling risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    18. Zhou, Jianxiong & Wei, Shanbi & Chai, Yi, 2021. "Using improved dynamic Bayesian networks in reliability evaluation for flexible test system of aerospace pyromechanical device products," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    19. Singh, Kritika & Maiti, J, 2020. "A novel data mining approach for analysis of accident paths and performance assessment of risk control systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    20. Khakzad, Nima, 2023. "A methodology based on Dijkstra's algorithm and mathematical programming for optimal evacuation in process plants in the event of major tank fires," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:188:y:2019:i:c:p:454-462. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.