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Reliability analysis and optimum maintenance of coastal flood defences using probabilistic deterioration modelling

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  • Chen, Hua-Peng
  • Mehrabani, Mehrdad Bahari

Abstract

This paper presents a method for time-dependent reliability analysis, future performance predictions and optimum maintenance strategy of coastal flood defences such as earth sea dykes subjected to changing operation conditions. The reliability analysis takes into account both the changes of hydraulic variables such as water level and wave height due to climate change and the deterioration of structural capacities such as crest freeboard loss and soil seepage length degradation over time. A probabilistic time-dependent semi-Markov process is adopted for estimating the transition probabilities on the basis of available field data through routine inspections and expert judgements. Limit state equations are established for evaluating time-dependent probability of failures associated with wave overtopping through the flood defence crest and piping in the underlying water conductive soils. A multi-objective optimisation method is then employed to find optimum solution space for asset inspection and maintenance by minimising both costs for inspection and annual risk of structural failures. The results for a typical earth sea dyke at Thames Estuary show that the probability of failures associated with wave overtopping and soil piping will increase significantly over time, thus appropriate maintenance strategy is required to reduce the risk caused by changing operating conditions.

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  • Chen, Hua-Peng & Mehrabani, Mehrdad Bahari, 2019. "Reliability analysis and optimum maintenance of coastal flood defences using probabilistic deterioration modelling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 163-174.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:185:y:2019:i:c:p:163-174
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.12.021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dupuits, E.J.C. & Schweckendiek, T. & Kok, M., 2017. "Economic optimization of coastal flood defense systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 143-152.
    2. Anvarifar, Fatemeh & Voorendt, Mark Z. & Zevenbergen, Chris & Thissen, Wil, 2017. "An application of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to risk analysis of multifunctional flood defences in the Netherlands," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 130-141.
    3. Konak, Abdullah & Coit, David W. & Smith, Alice E., 2006. "Multi-objective optimization using genetic algorithms: A tutorial," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(9), pages 992-1007.
    4. Buijs, F.A. & Hall, J.W. & Sayers, P.B. & Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M., 2009. "Time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defences," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(12), pages 1942-1953.
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    Cited by:

    1. Klerk, Wouter Jan & Kanning, Wim & Kok, Matthijs & Wolfert, Rogier, 2021. "Optimal planning of flood defence system reinforcements using a greedy search algorithm," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    2. Ni, Pinghe & Li, Jun & Hao, Hong & Yan, Weimin & Du, Xiuli & Zhou, Hongyuan, 2020. "Reliability analysis and design optimization of nonlinear structures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    3. Fluixá-Sanmartín, Javier & Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio & Morales-Torres, Adrián & Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara, 2020. "Comprehensive decision-making approach for managing time dependent dam risks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    4. Rajabzadeh, Vida & Hekmatzadeh, Ali Akbar & Tabatabaie Shourijeh, Piltan & Torabi Haghighi, Ali, 2023. "Introducing a probabilistic framework to measure dam overtopping risk for dams benefiting from dual spillways," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    5. Rongen, G. & Morales-Nápoles, O. & Kok, M., 2022. "Expert judgment-based reliability analysis of the Dutch flood defense system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    6. Xiaoyu Cui & Shaoping Wang & Tongyang Li & Jian Shi, 2019. "System Reliability Assessment Based on Energy Dissipation: Modeling and Application in Electro-Hydrostatic Actuation System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-22, September.
    7. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Zhang, Jun & Liu, Dedi & Zhang, Xiaoqi & Zhang, Xiaojing, 2020. "Considering different streamflow forecast horizons in the quantitative flood risk analysis for a multi-reservoir system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    8. Fahad, Md Golam Rabbani & Nazari, Rouzbeh & Motamedi, M.H. & Karimi, Maryam, 2022. "A Decision-Making Framework Integrating Fluid and Solid Systems to Assess Resilience of Coastal Communities Experiencing Extreme Storm Events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).

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