IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v203y2020ics0951832020306013.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comprehensive decision-making approach for managing time dependent dam risks

Author

Listed:
  • Fluixá-Sanmartín, Javier
  • Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio
  • Morales-Torres, Adrián
  • Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara

Abstract

Dams are critical infrastructures whose safety must be properly managed. Traditional decision-making approaches often assume the stationarity of factors defining risk. However, dam risk is susceptible to evolve with time. Risk can no longer be considered a static but a time-dependent concept which cumulative value must be reduced for different timescales. A broader perspective to dynamically evaluate time issues in the prioritization of measures is thus required.

Suggested Citation

  • Fluixá-Sanmartín, Javier & Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio & Morales-Torres, Adrián & Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara, 2020. "Comprehensive decision-making approach for managing time dependent dam risks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:203:y:2020:i:c:s0951832020306013
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107100
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832020306013
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107100?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Armando Serrano‐Lombillo & Ignacio Escuder‐Bueno & Manuel G. de Membrillera‐Ortuño & Luis Altarejos‐García, 2011. "Methodology for the Calculation of Annualized Incremental Risks in Systems of Dams," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(6), pages 1000-1015, June.
    2. Warren E. Walker & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2013. "Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-25, March.
    3. Morales-Torres, Adrián & Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio & Serrano-Lombillo, Armando & Castillo Rodríguez, Jesica T., 2019. "Dealing with epistemic uncertainty in risk-informed decision making for dam safety management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    4. Marjolijn Haasnoot & Hans Middelkoop & Astrid Offermans & Eelco Beek & Willem Deursen, 2012. "Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 795-819, December.
    5. Lutter, Randall & Morrall, John F, III & Viscusi, W Kip, 1999. "The Cost-per-Life-Saved Cutoff for Safety-Enhancing Regulations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 599-608, October.
    6. Taeil Park & Changyoon Kim & Hyoungkwan Kim, 2014. "Valuation of Drainage Infrastructure Improvement Under Climate Change Using Real Options," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(2), pages 445-457, January.
    7. Chen, Hua-Peng & Mehrabani, Mehrdad Bahari, 2019. "Reliability analysis and optimum maintenance of coastal flood defences using probabilistic deterioration modelling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 163-174.
    8. Joakim A. L. Ramsberg & Lennart Sjöberg, 1997. "The Cost‐Effectiveness of Lifesaving Interventions in Sweden," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 467-478, August.
    9. Lind, Niels, 2007. "Discounting risks in the far future," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(10), pages 1328-1332.
    10. Walker, Warren E. & Rahman, S. Adnan & Cave, Jonathan, 2001. "Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 282-289, January.
    11. Buijs, F.A. & Hall, J.W. & Sayers, P.B. & Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M., 2009. "Time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defences," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(12), pages 1942-1953.
    12. Delenne, C. & Cappelaere, B. & Guinot, V., 2012. "Uncertainty analysis of river flooding and dam failure risks using local sensitivity computations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 171-183.
    13. Stan Kaplan, 1997. "The Words of Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), pages 407-417, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abdollahi, Azam & Amini, Ali & Hariri-Ardebili, Mohammad Amin, 2022. "An uncertainty-aware dynamic shape optimization framework: Gravity dam design," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    2. Pei, Liang & Chen, Chen & He, Kun & Lu, Xiang, 2022. "System reliability of a gravity dam-foundation system using Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    3. Rajabzadeh, Vida & Hekmatzadeh, Ali Akbar & Tabatabaie Shourijeh, Piltan & Torabi Haghighi, Ali, 2023. "Introducing a probabilistic framework to measure dam overtopping risk for dams benefiting from dual spillways," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luciano Raso & Jan Kwakkel & Jos Timmermans, 2019. "Assessing the Capacity of Adaptive Policy Pathways to Adapt on Time by Mapping Trigger Values to Their Outcomes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Pieter Bloemen & Tim Reeder & Chris Zevenbergen & Jeroen Rijke & Ashley Kingsborough, 2018. "Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 1083-1108, October.
    3. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Zhang, Jun & Liu, Dedi & Zhang, Xiaoqi & Zhang, Xiaojing, 2020. "Considering different streamflow forecast horizons in the quantitative flood risk analysis for a multi-reservoir system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    4. Mohanasundar Radhakrishnan & Hong Quan Nguyen & Berry Gersonius & Assela Pathirana & Ky Quang Vinh & Richard M. Ashley & Chris Zevenbergen, 2018. "Coping capacities for improving adaptation pathways for flood protection in Can Tho, Vietnam," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(1), pages 29-41, July.
    5. Wil Thissen & Jan Kwakkel & Marjolein Mens & Jeroen Sluijs & Sara Stemberger & Arjan Wardekker & Diana Wildschut, 2017. "Dealing with Uncertainties in Fresh Water Supply: Experiences in the Netherlands," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(2), pages 703-725, January.
    6. Maddalen Mendizabal & Nieves Peña & Hans Hooyberghs & Griet Lambrechts & Joel Sepúlveda & Saioa Zorita, 2021. "Lessons Learned from Applying Adaptation Pathways in Heatwave Risk Management in Antwerp and Key Challenges for Further Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-23, October.
    7. Sandrine Mathy & Patrick Criqui & Katharina Knoop & Manfred Fischedick & Sascha Samadi, 2016. "Uncertainty management and the dynamic adjustment of deep decarbonization pathways," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(sup1), pages 47-62, June.
    8. Ram, Camelia, 2020. "Scenario presentation and scenario generation in multi-criteria assessments: An exploratory study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Sierra C. Woodruff, 2016. "Planning for an unknowable future: uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 445-459, December.
    10. Rose, Rodrigo L. & Mugi, Sohan R. & Saleh, Joseph Homer, 2023. "Accident investigation and lessons not learned: AcciMap analysis of successive tailings dam collapses in Brazil," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    11. Matteo Giuliani & Andrea Castelletti, 2016. "Is robustness really robust? How different definitions of robustness impact decision-making under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 409-424, April.
    12. Julie Shortridge & Seth Guikema & Ben Zaitchik, 2017. "Robust decision making in data scarce contexts: addressing data and model limitations for infrastructure planning under transient climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 323-337, January.
    13. Meng Meng & Marcin Dabrowski & Dominic Stead, 2020. "Enhancing Flood Resilience and Climate Adaptation: The State of the Art and New Directions for Spatial Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-23, September.
    14. Anvarifar, Fatemeh & Voorendt, Mark Z. & Zevenbergen, Chris & Thissen, Wil, 2017. "An application of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to risk analysis of multifunctional flood defences in the Netherlands," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 130-141.
    15. Rajabzadeh, Vida & Hekmatzadeh, Ali Akbar & Tabatabaie Shourijeh, Piltan & Torabi Haghighi, Ali, 2023. "Introducing a probabilistic framework to measure dam overtopping risk for dams benefiting from dual spillways," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    16. B. Gersonius & J. Rijke & R. Ashley & P. Bloemen & E. Kelder & C. Zevenbergen, 2016. "Adaptive Delta Management for flood risk and resilience in Dordrecht, The Netherlands," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(2), pages 201-216, June.
    17. Judy Lawrence & Robert Bell & Adolf Stroombergen, 2019. "A Hybrid Process to Address Uncertainty and Changing Climate Risk in Coastal Areas Using Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis & Real Options Analysis: A New Zealand App," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, January.
    18. Junyu Zhang & Dafang Fu & Christian Urich & Rajendra Prasad Singh, 2018. "Accelerated Exploration for Long-Term Urban Water Infrastructure Planning through Machine Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, December.
    19. Jan Kwakkel & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Warren Walker, 2015. "Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 373-386, October.
    20. Stanton, Muriel C. Bonjean & Roelich, Katy, 2021. "Decision making under deep uncertainties: A review of the applicability of methods in practice," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:203:y:2020:i:c:s0951832020306013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.