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Dealing with epistemic uncertainty in risk-informed decision making for dam safety management

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  • Morales-Torres, Adrián
  • Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio
  • Serrano-Lombillo, Armando
  • Castillo Rodríguez, Jesica T.

Abstract

In recent years, the application of risk analysis to inform dam safety governance has increased significantly. In this framework, considering explicitly and independently both natural and epistemic uncertainty in quantitative risk models allows to understand the sources of uncertainty in risk results and to estimate the effect of actions, tests, and surveys to reduce epistemic uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Morales-Torres, Adrián & Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio & Serrano-Lombillo, Armando & Castillo Rodríguez, Jesica T., 2019. "Dealing with epistemic uncertainty in risk-informed decision making for dam safety management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:191:y:2019:i:c:s0951832019302212
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106562
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Dongkyu & Song, Junho, 2023. "Risk-informed operation and maintenance of complex lifeline systems using parallelized multi-agent deep Q-network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    2. Liu, Zhichen & Li, Ying & Zhang, Zhaoyi & Yu, Wenbo, 2022. "A new evacuation accessibility analysis approach based on spatial information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    3. Fluixá-Sanmartín, Javier & Escuder-Bueno, Ignacio & Morales-Torres, Adrián & Castillo-Rodríguez, Jesica Tamara, 2020. "Comprehensive decision-making approach for managing time dependent dam risks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    4. Abdollahi, Azam & Amini, Ali & Hariri-Ardebili, Mohammad Amin, 2022. "An uncertainty-aware dynamic shape optimization framework: Gravity dam design," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    5. Guanjie He & Junrui Chai & Yuan Qin & Zengguang Xu & Shouyi Li, 2020. "Coupled Model of Variable Fuzzy Sets and the Analytic Hierarchy Process and its Application to the Social and Environmental Impact Evaluation of Dam Breaks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2677-2697, July.
    6. Pei, Liang & Chen, Chen & He, Kun & Lu, Xiang, 2022. "System reliability of a gravity dam-foundation system using Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    7. Rose, Rodrigo L. & Mugi, Sohan R. & Saleh, Joseph Homer, 2023. "Accident investigation and lessons not learned: AcciMap analysis of successive tailings dam collapses in Brazil," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    8. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Zhang, Jun & Liu, Dedi & Zhang, Xiaoqi & Zhang, Xiaojing, 2020. "Considering different streamflow forecast horizons in the quantitative flood risk analysis for a multi-reservoir system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    9. Bachner, G. & Mayer, J. & Steininger, K.W. & Anger-Kraavi, A. & Smith, A. & Barker, T.S., 2020. "Uncertainties in macroeconomic assessments of low-carbon transition pathways - The case of the European iron and steel industry," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).

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