IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v178y2018icp209-224.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Towards the development of a system-theoretic model for safety assessment of autonomous merchant vessels

Author

Listed:
  • Wróbel, Krzysztof
  • Montewka, Jakub
  • Kujala, Pentti

Abstract

As the initiatives to develop and implement autonomous merchant vessels into the global shipping industry are gaining momentum, their safety remains in the spotlight. It is argued that every effort shall be taken to ensure that the safety of maritime transportation is not reduced in the process, but the question of how to achieve it remains open. Meanwhile, the systemic approach is more widely being used to analyse innovative systems’ safety. We therefore apply a System-Theoretic Process Analysis to develop a model suitable for safety analysis and design recommendations’ elaboration for future autonomous vessels. Furthermore, we introduce a method of evaluating and communicating uncertainties pertaining to the method. The results indicate that the system-theoretic safety analysis’ outcome can be affected by manageable uncertainties despite the fact that the system in question is yet to be implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • Wróbel, Krzysztof & Montewka, Jakub & Kujala, Pentti, 2018. "Towards the development of a system-theoretic model for safety assessment of autonomous merchant vessels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 209-224.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:178:y:2018:i:c:p:209-224
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.05.019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832017306233
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2018.05.019?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rajagopal, 2014. "The Human Factors," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Architecting Enterprise, chapter 9, pages 225-249, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Montewka, Jakub & Goerlandt, Floris & Innes-Jones, Gemma & Owen, Douglas & Hifi, Yasmine & Puisa, Romanas, 2017. "Enhancing human performance in ship operations by modifying global design factors at the design stage," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 283-300.
    3. Fiondella, Lance & Lin, Yi-Kuei & Pham, Hoang & Chang, Ping-Chen & Li, Chendong, 2017. "A confidence-based approach to reliability design considering correlated failures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 102-114.
    4. Aven, Terje & Heide, Bjørnar, 2009. "Reliability and validity of risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(11), pages 1862-1868.
    5. Ajit Kumar Verma & Ajit Srividya & Durga Rao Karanki, 2010. "Reliability and Safety Engineering," Springer Series in Reliability Engineering, Springer, number 978-1-84996-232-2, September.
    6. Stanley Kaplan & B. John Garrick, 1981. "On The Quantitative Definition of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), pages 11-27, March.
    7. Durga Rao, K. & Kushwaha, H.S. & Verma, A.K. & Srividya, A., 2007. "Quantification of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in level-1 probabilistic safety assessment studies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(7), pages 947-956.
    8. Thieme, Christoph A. & Utne, Ingrid B., 2017. "Safety performance monitoring of autonomous marine systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 264-275.
    9. Bjerga, Torbjørn & Aven, Terje & Zio, Enrico, 2016. "Uncertainty treatment in risk analysis of complex systems: The cases of STAMP and FRAM," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 203-209.
    10. Flage, R. & Aven, T., 2015. "Emerging risk – Conceptual definition and a relation to black swan type of events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 61-67.
    11. Robertson, L.S., 1996. "Reducing death on the road: The effects of minimum safety standards, publicized crash tests, seat belts, and alcohol," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 86(1), pages 31-34.
    12. Wróbel, Krzysztof & Montewka, Jakub & Kujala, Pentti, 2017. "Towards the assessment of potential impact of unmanned vessels on maritime transportation safety," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 155-169.
    13. Rokseth, Børge & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2018. "Deriving verification objectives and scenarios for maritime systems using the systems-theoretic process analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 18-31.
    14. Righi, Angela Weber & Saurin, Tarcisio Abreu & Wachs, Priscila, 2015. "A systematic literature review of resilience engineering: Research areas and a research agenda proposal," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 142-152.
    15. Montewka, Jakub & Goerlandt, Floris & Kujala, Pentti, 2014. "On a systematic perspective on risk for formal safety assessment (FSA)," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 77-85.
    16. Kalra, Nidhi & Paddock, Susan M., 2016. "Driving to safety: How many miles of driving would it take to demonstrate autonomous vehicle reliability?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 182-193.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hristos Karahalios, 2020. "Appraisal of a Ship’s Cybersecurity efficiency: the case of piracy," Journal of Transportation Security, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 179-201, December.
    2. Victor Bolbot & Gerasimos Theotokatos & LA Wennersberg & Jerome Faivre & Dracos Vassalos & Evangelos Boulougouris & Ørnulf Jan Rødseth & Pål Andersen & Ann-Sofie Pauwelyn & Antoon Van Coillie, 2023. "A novel risk assessment process: Application to an autonomous inland waterways ship," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 237(2), pages 436-458, April.
    3. Dorota Chybowska & Leszek Chybowski & Jarosław Myśków & Jerzy Manerowski, 2023. "Identification of the Most Important Events to the Occurrence of a Disaster Using Maritime Examples," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-25, July.
    4. Fonseca, Tiago & Lagdami, Khanssa & Schröder-Hinrichs, Jens-Uwe, 2021. "Assessing innovation in transport: An application of the Technology Adoption (TechAdo) model to Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS)," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 182-195.
    5. Khastgir, Siddartha & Brewerton, Simon & Thomas, John & Jennings, Paul, 2021. "Systems Approach to Creating Test Scenarios for Automated Driving Systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    6. Read, G.J.M. & Naweed, A. & Salmon, P.M., 2019. "Complexity on the rails: A systems-based approach to understanding safety management in rail transport," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 352-365.
    7. Li, Xue & Oh, Poong & Zhou, Yusheng & Yuen, Kum Fai, 2023. "Operational risk identification of maritime surface autonomous ship: A network analysis approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-14.
    8. Antão, P. & Sun, S. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2023. "Quantitative assessment of ship collision risk influencing factors from worldwide accident and fleet data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    9. Antonello, Federico & Buongiorno, Jacopo & Zio, Enrico, 2022. "A methodology to perform dynamic risk assessment using system theory and modeling and simulation: Application to nuclear batteries," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    10. Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Rokseth, Børge & Sørensen, Asgeir J. & Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2020. "Towards supervisory risk control of autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    11. de Vos, Jiri & Hekkenberg, Robert G. & Valdez Banda, Osiris A., 2021. "The Impact of Autonomous Ships on Safety at Sea – A Statistical Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    12. BahooToroody, Ahmad & Abaei, Mohammad Mahdi & Banda, Osiris Valdez & Kujala, Pentti & De Carlo, Filippo & Abbassi, Rouzbeh, 2022. "Prognostic health management of repairable ship systems through different autonomy degree; From current condition to fully autonomous ship," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    13. Fan, Cunlong & Montewka, Jakub & Zhang, Di, 2022. "A risk comparison framework for autonomous ships navigation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    14. Shin, Sung-Min & Lee, Sang Hun & Shin, Seung Ki & Jang, Inseok & Park, Jinkyun, 2021. "STPA-Based Hazard and Importance Analysis on NPP Safety I&C Systems Focusing on Human–System Interactions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    15. Chen, Xi & Bose, Neil & Brito, Mario & Khan, Faisal & Thanyamanta, Bo & Zou, Ting, 2021. "A Review of Risk Analysis Research for the Operations of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    16. Johansen, Thomas & Blindheim, Simon & Torben, Tobias Rye & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Johansen, Tor Arne & Sørensen, Asgeir J., 2023. "Development and testing of a risk-based control system for autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    17. Wang, Yang & Chen, Peng & Wu, Bing & Wan, Chengpeng & Yang, Zaili, 2022. "A trustable architecture over blockchain to facilitate maritime administration for MASS systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    18. Zhang, Aibo & Yin, Zhaoyuan & Wu, Zhiying & Xie, Min & Liu, Yiliu & Yu, Haoshui, 2023. "Investigation of the compressed air energy storage (CAES) system utilizing systems-theoretic process analysis (STPA) towards safe and sustainable energy supply," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1075-1085.
    19. Gil, Mateusz, 2021. "A concept of critical safety area applicable for an obstacle-avoidance process for manned and autonomous ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    20. Chang, Chia-Hsun & Kontovas, Christos & Yu, Qing & Yang, Zaili, 2021. "Risk assessment of the operations of maritime autonomous surface ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Bing & Yip, Tsz Leung & Yan, Xinping & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Review of techniques and challenges of human and organizational factors analysis in maritime transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    2. Khastgir, Siddartha & Brewerton, Simon & Thomas, John & Jennings, Paul, 2021. "Systems Approach to Creating Test Scenarios for Automated Driving Systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    3. Nikolaos P Ventikos & Konstantinos Louzis, 2023. "Developing next generation marine risk analysis for ships: Bio-inspiration for building immunity," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 237(2), pages 405-424, April.
    4. Victor Bolbot & Gerasimos Theotokatos & LA Wennersberg & Jerome Faivre & Dracos Vassalos & Evangelos Boulougouris & Ørnulf Jan Rødseth & Pål Andersen & Ann-Sofie Pauwelyn & Antoon Van Coillie, 2023. "A novel risk assessment process: Application to an autonomous inland waterways ship," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 237(2), pages 436-458, April.
    5. Mazurek, J. & Lu, L. & Krata, P. & Montewka, J. & Krata, H. & Kujala, P., 2022. "An updated method identifying collision-prone locations for ships. A case study for oil tankers navigating in the Gulf of Finland," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    6. Carine Dominguez-Péry & Lakshmi Narasimha Raju Vuddaraju & Isabelle Corbett-Etchevers & Rana Tassabehji, 2021. "Reducing maritime accidents in ships by tackling human error: a bibliometric review and research agenda," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-32, December.
    7. Wróbel, Krzysztof, 2021. "Searching for the origins of the myth: 80% human error impact on maritime safety," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    8. Zio, E., 2018. "The future of risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 176-190.
    9. Faiella, Giuliana & Parand, Anam & Franklin, Bryony Dean & Chana, Prem & Cesarelli, Mario & Stanton, Neville A. & Sevdalis, Nick, 2018. "Expanding healthcare failure mode and effect analysis: A composite proactive risk analysis approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 117-126.
    10. Cian Ryan & Finbarr Murphy & Martin Mullins, 2019. "Semiautonomous Vehicle Risk Analysis: A Telematics‐Based Anomaly Detection Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(5), pages 1125-1140, May.
    11. Goerlandt, Floris & Islam, Samsul, 2021. "A Bayesian Network risk model for estimating coastal maritime transportation delays following an earthquake in British Columbia," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    12. Tu Duong Le Duy & Laurence Dieulle & Dominique Vasseur & Christophe Bérenguer & Mathieu Couplet, 2013. "An alternative comprehensive framework using belief functions for parameter and model uncertainty analysis in nuclear probabilistic risk assessment applications," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 227(5), pages 471-490, October.
    13. Chang, Chia-Hsun & Kontovas, Christos & Yu, Qing & Yang, Zaili, 2021. "Risk assessment of the operations of maritime autonomous surface ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    14. Henrik Hassel & Alexander Cedergren, 2019. "Exploring the Conceptual Foundation of Continuity Management in the Context of Societal Safety," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(7), pages 1503-1519, July.
    15. Kaptan, Mehmet & Uğurlu, Özkan & Wang, Jin, 2021. "The effect of nonconformities encountered in the use of technology on the occurrence of collision, contact and grounding accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    16. Krzysztof Wróbel & Mateusz Gil & Przemysław Krata & Karol Olszewski & Jakub Montewka, 2023. "On the use of leading safety indicators in maritime and their feasibility for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 237(2), pages 314-331, April.
    17. Fan, Cunlong & Montewka, Jakub & Zhang, Di, 2022. "A risk comparison framework for autonomous ships navigation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    18. Mauro, Francesco & Vassalos, Dracos & Paterson, Donald, 2022. "Critical damages identification in a multi-level damage stability assessment framework for passenger ships," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    19. Yang, Xue & Ramezani, Ramin & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer & Mosleh, Ali & Lader, PÃ¥l Furset, 2020. "Operational limits for aquaculture operations from a risk and safety perspective," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    20. Wróbel, Krzysztof & Montewka, Jakub & Kujala, Pentti, 2017. "Towards the assessment of potential impact of unmanned vessels on maritime transportation safety," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 155-169.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:178:y:2018:i:c:p:209-224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.