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Vulnerability of industrial plants to flood-induced natechs: A Bayesian network approach

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  • Khakzad, Nima
  • Van Gelder, Pieter

Abstract

In the context of natural-technological (natech) accidents, flood-induced damage of industrial plants have received relatively less attention mainly due to the scarcity of such accidents compared to those triggered by earthquakes, high winds, and lightnings. The large amount of oil and chemicals spillage due to floods triggered by the Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 and Harvey in 2017 in the U.S. demonstrated the potential of floods in causing catastrophic natechs. In the present study, we have developed a methodology based on physical reliability models and Bayesian network so as to assess the fragility (probability of failure) of industrial plants to floods. The application of the methodology has been demonstrated for petroleum storage tanks where flotation, shell buckling, and sliding are considered as the prevailing failure modes. Due to scarcity of empirical data and high-resolution field observations prevailing in natechs, the developed methodology can effectively be applied to a wide variety of natechs in industrial plants as long as limit state equations of respective failure modes can reasonably be developed.

Suggested Citation

  • Khakzad, Nima & Van Gelder, Pieter, 2018. "Vulnerability of industrial plants to flood-induced natechs: A Bayesian network approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 403-411.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:169:y:2018:i:c:p:403-411
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.09.016
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    15. Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Bonvicini, Sarah & Cozzani, Valerio, 2016. "Quantitative assessment of risk due to major accidents triggered by lightning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 60-72.
    16. Ana Cruz & Norio Okada, 2008. "Consideration of natural hazards in the design and risk management of industrial facilities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 44(2), pages 213-227, February.
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    18. Marzo, E. & Busini, V. & Rota, R., 2015. "Definition of a short-cut methodology for assessing the vulnerability of a territory in natural–technological risk estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 92-97.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mei Cai & Stephen M. Marson, 2021. "A regional Natech risk assessment based on a Natech-prone facility network for dependent events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2155-2174, July.
    3. Misuri, Alessio & Ricci, Federica & Sorichetti, Riccardo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2023. "The Effect of Safety Barrier Degradation on the Severity of Primary Natech Scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    4. Abrishami, Shokoufeh & Khakzad, Nima & Hosseini, Seyed Mahmoud, 2020. "A data-based comparison of BN-HRA models in assessing human error probability: An offshore evacuation case study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    5. Bernier, Carl & Padgett, Jamie E., 2019. "Fragility and risk assessment of aboveground storage tanks subjected to concurrent surge, wave, and wind loads," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    6. Rossi, Lorenzo & Casson Moreno, Valeria & Landucci, Gabriele, 2022. "Vulnerability assessment of process pipelines affected by flood events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    7. Zhou, Xingyuan & van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. & Liang, Yongtu & Zhang, Haoran, 2020. "An integrated methodology for the supply reliability analysis of multi-product pipeline systems under pumps failure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    8. Tao Zeng & Guohua Chen & Yunfeng Yang & Genserik Reniers & Yixin Zhao & Xia Liu, 2020. "A Systematic Literature Review on Safety Research Related to Chemical Industrial Parks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-27, July.
    9. Chen, Chao & Yang, Ming & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "A dynamic stochastic methodology for quantifying HAZMAT storage resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    10. Caratozzolo, Vincenzo & Misuri, Alessio & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A generalized equipment vulnerability model for the quantitative risk assessment of horizontal vessels involved in Natech scenarios triggered by floods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    11. Di Maio, Francesco & Marchetti, Stefano & Zio, Enrico, 2023. "Robust multi-objective optimization of safety barriers performance parameters for NaTech scenarios risk assessment and management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    12. Ye Zheng & Yazhou Xie & Xuejiao Long, 2021. "A comprehensive review of Bayesian statistics in natural hazards engineering," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 63-91, August.
    13. Zuluaga Mayorga, Santiago & Sánchez-Silva, Mauricio & Ramírez Olivar, Oscar J. & Muñoz Giraldo, Felipe, 2019. "Development of parametric fragility curves for storage tanks: A Natech approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 1-10.
    14. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of risk modification due to safety barrier performance degradation in Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    15. Men, Jinkun & Chen, Guohua & Yang, Yunfeng & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "An event-driven probabilistic methodology for modeling the spatial-temporal evolution of natural hazard-induced domino chain in chemical industrial parks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    16. Gong, Yu & Liu, Pan & Zhang, Jun & Liu, Dedi & Zhang, Xiaoqi & Zhang, Xiaojing, 2020. "Considering different streamflow forecast horizons in the quantitative flood risk analysis for a multi-reservoir system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    17. Bernier, Carl & Gidaris, Ioannis & Balomenos, Georgios P. & Padgett, Jamie E., 2019. "Assessing the accessibility of petrochemical facilities during storm surge events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 155-167.

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