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Quantitative assessment of risk due to major accidents triggered by lightning

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  • Necci, Amos
  • Antonioni, Giacomo
  • Bonvicini, Sarah
  • Cozzani, Valerio

Abstract

Lightning is one of the most frequent accident causes in storage tank parks, and accidents triggered by lightning are the most frequent Natech event reported in past-accident analysis. In the present study, a methodology for the inclusion of accidents triggered by lightning in Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) was developed. A model for the assessment of lightning impact probability on process equipment and specific equipment vulnerability models were coupled to dedicated event trees, allowing the quantification of risk indexes. The methodology developed also allows the assessment of risk reduction by the implementation of different lightning protection strategies. The results obtained represent a step forward towards the introduction of risk-based design of lightning protection systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Bonvicini, Sarah & Cozzani, Valerio, 2016. "Quantitative assessment of risk due to major accidents triggered by lightning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 60-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:154:y:2016:i:c:p:60-72
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.05.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elisabeth Krausmann & Elisabetta Renni & Michela Campedel & Valerio Cozzani, 2011. "Industrial accidents triggered by earthquakes, floods and lightning: lessons learned from a database analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(1), pages 285-300, October.
    2. Ana Cruz & Norio Okada, 2008. "Methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(2), pages 199-220, August.
    3. Necci, Amos & Argenti, Francesca & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2014. "Accident scenarios triggered by lightning strike on atmospheric storage tanks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 30-46.
    4. Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Cozzani, Valerio & Krausmann, Elisabeth & Borghetti, Alberto & Nucci, Carlo Alberto, 2014. "Assessment of lightning impact frequency for process equipment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 95-105.
    5. Landucci, Gabriele & Antonioni, Giacomo & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2012. "Release of hazardous substances in flood events: Damage model for atmospheric storage tanks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 200-216.
    6. Salzano, Ernesto & Garcia Agreda, Anita & Di Carluccio, Antonio & Fabbrocino, Giovanni, 2009. "Risk assessment and early warning systems for industrial facilities in seismic zones," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(10), pages 1577-1584.
    7. Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Cozzani, Valerio & Krausmann, Elisabeth & Borghetti, Alberto & Alberto Nucci, Carlo, 2013. "A model for process equipment damage probability assessment due to lightning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 91-99.
    8. Landucci, Gabriele & Necci, Amos & Antonioni, Giacomo & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2014. "Release of hazardous substances in flood events: Damage model for horizontal cylindrical vessels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 125-145.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Yunfeng & Chen, Guohua & Reniers, Genserik, 2020. "Vulnerability assessment of atmospheric storage tanks to floods based on logistic regression," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    2. Chen, Chao & Yang, Ming & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "A dynamic stochastic methodology for quantifying HAZMAT storage resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    3. Caratozzolo, Vincenzo & Misuri, Alessio & Cozzani, Valerio, 2022. "A generalized equipment vulnerability model for the quantitative risk assessment of horizontal vessels involved in Natech scenarios triggered by floods," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    4. Khakzad, Nima & Van Gelder, Pieter, 2018. "Vulnerability of industrial plants to flood-induced natechs: A Bayesian network approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 403-411.
    5. Misuri, Alessio & Landucci, Gabriele & Cozzani, Valerio, 2021. "Assessment of safety barrier performance in the mitigation of domino scenarios caused by Natech events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    6. Misuri, Alessio & Ricci, Federica & Sorichetti, Riccardo & Cozzani, Valerio, 2023. "The Effect of Safety Barrier Degradation on the Severity of Primary Natech Scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    7. Bernier, Carl & Padgett, Jamie E., 2019. "Fragility and risk assessment of aboveground storage tanks subjected to concurrent surge, wave, and wind loads," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Yunfeng Yang & Guohua Chen & Yuanfei Zhao, 2023. "A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part II—Risk Assessment and Mitigation System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.

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