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A level-1 probabilistic risk assessment to blackout hazard in transmission power systems

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  • Henneaux, Pierre
  • Labeau, Pierre-Etienne
  • Maun, Jean-Claude

Abstract

The blackout risk in power systems is difficult to estimate by actual probabilistic methods because they usually neglect, or do not properly consider, the dependencies between failures and the dynamic evolution of the grid in the course of a transient. Our purpose is therefore to develop an integrated probabilistic approach to blackout analysis, capable of handling the coupling between events in cascading failure, and the dynamic response of the grid to stochastic initiating perturbations. This approach is adapted from dynamic reliability methodologies. This paper focuses on the modeling adopted for the first phase of a blackout, ruled by thermal transients. The goal is to identify dangerous cascading scenarios and better calculate their frequency. A Monte Carlo code specifically developed for this purpose is validated on a test grid. Some dangerous scenarios are presented and their frequency calculated by this method is compared with a more classical estimation neglecting thermal effects, showing significant differences. In particular, our method can reveal dangerous scenarios neglected or underestimated by the more classical method because they do not take into account the increase of failure rates in stress conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Henneaux, Pierre & Labeau, Pierre-Etienne & Maun, Jean-Claude, 2012. "A level-1 probabilistic risk assessment to blackout hazard in transmission power systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 41-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:102:y:2012:i:c:p:41-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2012.02.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Volkanovski, Andrija & ÄŒepin, Marko & Mavko, Borut, 2009. "Application of the fault tree analysis for assessment of power system reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(6), pages 1116-1127.
    2. Haarla, Liisa & Pulkkinen, Urho & Koskinen, Mikko & Jyrinsalo, Jussi, 2008. "A method for analysing the reliability of a transmission grid," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 277-287.
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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Murtadha Othman & Nur Ashida Salim & Ismail Musirin, 2017. "Sustainability from the Occurrence of Critical Dynamic Power System Blackout Determined by Using the Stochastic Event Tree Technique," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Guo, Hengdao & Zheng, Ciyan & Iu, Herbert Ho-Ching & Fernando, Tyrone, 2017. "A critical review of cascading failure analysis and modeling of power system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 9-22.
    3. Rocchetta, R. & Li, Y.F. & Zio, E., 2015. "Risk assessment and risk-cost optimization of distributed power generation systems considering extreme weather conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 47-61.
    4. Diao, Xiaoxu & Zhao, Yunfei & Smidts, Carol & Vaddi, Pavan Kumar & Li, Ruixuan & Lei, Hangtian & Chakhchoukh, Yacine & Johnson, Brian & Blanc, Katya Le, 2024. "Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment for electric grid cybersecurity," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    5. Agnieszka Bieda & Agnieszka Cienciała, 2021. "Towards a Renewable Energy Source Cadastre—A Review of Examples from around the World," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-34, December.
    6. Liu, Hanchen & Wang, Chong & Ju, Ping & Li, Hongyu, 2022. "A sequentially preventive model enhancing power system resilience against extreme-weather-triggered failures," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    7. Shoki Kosai & Chia Kwang Tan & Eiji Yamasue, 2018. "Evaluating Power Reliability Dedicated for Sudden Disruptions: Its Application to Determine Capacity on the Basis of Energy Security," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-18, June.
    8. Kamyab, Shahabeddin & Nematollahi, Mohammadreza & Henneaux, Pierre & Labeau, Pierre-Etienne, 2021. "Development of a hybrid method to assess grid-related LOOP scenarios for an NPP," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).

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