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Time-varying losses in material flows of steel using dynamic material flow models

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  • Gauffin, Alicia
  • Andersson, Nils Å.I.
  • Storm, Per
  • Tilliander, Anders
  • Jönsson, Pär G.

Abstract

A method for annual evaluation of recycling rates in material flows was established to enable a consistent analysis of resource utilizations. The algorithm to calculate the time-varying losses was derived based on a sound statistical approach that would be viable for both historical data and future predictions. This method eliminates the need for adjustable parameters and is solely based on input data of the material consumption and scrap collection. This article describes the model methodology and the calculation procedures to classify the societal scrap reserve from the amounts of losses, based on statistics. These statistical models contribute to establish a standardized method to obtain consistent results. Based on the method the lifetime of steel data was for the first time calculated on an annual basis for the steel usage as well as for the end of life scrap amount. This was done for the Swedish steel consumption and the global steel consumption between 1900 and 2013 as well as for future predictions between 2013 and 2060. The lifetime of steel was calculated to be higher in an industrialized country such as Sweden compared to the global average value. More specifically, the service lifetimes of EOL steel in Sweden and in the World were calculated to be 35 and 28 years in 2012, respectively. This novel approach of using system specific data on the lifetime of steel on an annual basis enables a possibility to evaluate recycling trends and potentials to increase the recycling rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Gauffin, Alicia & Andersson, Nils Å.I. & Storm, Per & Tilliander, Anders & Jönsson, Pär G., 2017. "Time-varying losses in material flows of steel using dynamic material flow models," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 70-83.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:recore:v:116:y:2017:i:c:p:70-83
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.09.024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Park, Jeong-a & Hong, Seok-jin & Kim, Ik & Lee, Ji-yong & Hur, Tak, 2011. "Dynamic material flow analysis of steel resources in Korea," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 456-462.
    2. Pauliuk, Stefan & Wang, Tao & Müller, Daniel B., 2013. "Steel all over the world: Estimating in-use stocks of iron for 200 countries," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 22-30.
    3. Daigo, Ichiro & Matsuno, Yasunari & Adachi, Yoshihiro, 2010. "Substance flow analysis of chromium and nickel in the material flow of stainless steel in Japan," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 851-863.
    4. Xuan, Yanni & Yue, Qiang, 2016. "Forecast of steel demand and the availability of depreciated steel scrap in China," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-12.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xuan, Yanni & Yue, Qiang, 2017. "Scenario analysis on resource and environmental benefits of imported steel scrap for China’s steel industry," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 186-198.
    2. Cyrille F. Dunant & Trishla Shah & Michał P. Drewniok & Matteo Craglia & Jonathan M. Cullen, 2021. "A new method to estimate the lifetime of long‐life product categories," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(2), pages 321-332, April.

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