IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v674y2025ics0378437125003747.html

The adverse effects of large-scale vaccination on highly transmissible epidemics

Author

Listed:
  • Zhou, Yinzuo
  • Liu, Yihan
  • Zhang, Xiyun
  • Zhou, Jie

Abstract

In this paper, we consider highly transmissible epidemics that incorporate a finite immunity period. Under the conditions where: (i) vaccines are partially effective, and (ii) hospital resources are limited, we find that large-scale vaccination may, however, lead to more cumulative infections as compared to small-scale vaccination. We demonstrate that the non-Markovian feature of the epidemic model plays an important role of this counterintuitive phenomenon, and we develop an approach to predict the thresholds of the epidemic process using a set of recurrent equations. Our findings may provide useful insights for administrative measures when encountering highly transmissible epidemics.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Yinzuo & Liu, Yihan & Zhang, Xiyun & Zhou, Jie, 2025. "The adverse effects of large-scale vaccination on highly transmissible epidemics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 674(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:674:y:2025:i:c:s0378437125003747
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2025.130722
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437125003747
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2025.130722?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kristian Soltesz & Fredrik Gustafsson & Toomas Timpka & Joakim Jaldén & Carl Jidling & Albin Heimerson & Thomas B. Schön & Armin Spreco & Joakim Ekberg & Örjan Dahlström & Fredrik Bagge Carlson & Anna, 2020. "The effect of interventions on COVID-19," Nature, Nature, vol. 588(7839), pages 26-28, December.
    2. Zhou, Yinzuo & Zhou, Jie & Gao, Yanli & Xiao, Gaoxi, 2023. "Analytic prediction for the threshold of non-Markovian epidemic process on temporal networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 175(P1).
    3. Gabriele Neumann & Takeshi Noda & Yoshihiro Kawaoka, 2009. "Emergence and pandemic potential of swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus," Nature, Nature, vol. 459(7249), pages 931-939, June.
    4. Yao, Yiyang & Zhou, Yinzuo, 2017. "Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 467(C), pages 218-225.
    5. Mi Feng & Shi-Min Cai & Ming Tang & Ying-Cheng Lai, 2019. "Equivalence and its invalidation between non-Markovian and Markovian spreading dynamics on complex networks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samuel de Haas & Georg Goetz & Sven Heim, 2021. "Measuring the effects of COVID-19-related night curfews: Empirical evidence from Germany," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202118, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Wang, Peipei & Liu, Haiyan & Zheng, Xinqi & Ma, Ruifang, 2023. "A new method for spatio-temporal transmission prediction of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Alfano, Vincenzo, 2023. "God or good health? Evidence on belief in God in relation to public health during a pandemic," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    4. Ricardo Aguas & Neil M Ferguson, 2013. "Feature Selection Methods for Identifying Genetic Determinants of Host Species in RNA Viruses," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(10), pages 1-10, October.
    5. Gong, Chang & Li, Jichao & Qian, Liwei & Li, Siwei & Yang, Zhiwei & Yang, Kewei, 2024. "HMSL: Source localization based on higher-order Markov propagation," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    6. Alfano, Vincenzo, 2026. "In the shadow of a pandemic: Informality and COVID-19 diffusion in Europe," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    7. Michael George Roberts & Hiroshi Nishiura, 2011. "Early Estimation of the Reproduction Number in the Presence of Imported Cases: Pandemic Influenza H1N1-2009 in New Zealand," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(5), pages 1-9, May.
    8. repec:plo:ppat00:1008656 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Wang, Xuhui & Wu, Jiao & Yang, Zheng & Xu, Kesheng & Wang, Zhengling & Zheng, Muhua, 2024. "The correlation between independent edge and triangle degrees promote the explosive information spreading," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 640(C).
    10. Zachariah Sinkala & Vajira Manathunga & Bichaka Fayissa, 2022. "An Epidemic Compartment Model for Economic Policy Directions for Managing Future Pandemic," Papers 2202.05374, arXiv.org.
    11. repec:plo:pone00:0101785 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:plo:pone00:0024706 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Tony Marion & Husni Elbahesh & Paul G Thomas & John P DeVincenzo & Richard Webby & Klaus Schughart, 2016. "Respiratory Mucosal Proteome Quantification in Human Influenza Infections," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-16, April.
    14. Suman R Das & Pere Puigbò & Scott E Hensley & Darrell E Hurt & Jack R Bennink & Jonathan W Yewdell, 2010. "Glycosylation Focuses Sequence Variation in the Influenza A Virus H1 Hemagglutinin Globular Domain," PLOS Pathogens, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(11), pages 1-13, November.
    15. Wang, Haiying & Moore, Jack Murdoch & Small, Michael & Wang, Jun & Yang, Huijie & Gu, Changgui, 2022. "Epidemic dynamics on higher-dimensional small world networks," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 421(C).
    16. Crudu, Federico & Di Stefano, Roberta & Mellace, Giovanni & Tiezzi, Silvia, 2024. "The gray zone: How not imposing a strict lockdown at the beginning of a pandemic can cost many lives," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. repec:plo:pone00:0009888 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:plo:pone00:0010071 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Gao, Mingxiang & Zhu, Linhe & Shen, Shuling, 2025. "Epidemic propagation dynamic on the higher-order multilayer network," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 200(P1).
    20. Basnarkov, Lasko & Tomovski, Igor & Sandev, Trifce & Kocarev, Ljupco, 2022. "Non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    21. Lin, Xuhui & Chen, Long & Lu, Qiuchen & Zhao, Pengjun & Cheng, Tao, 2026. "Revealing higher-order interactions through multimodal irreversibility in flood-affected transportation networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 266(PA).
    22. Lee, Choong-Ki & Song, Hak-Jun & Bendle, Lawrence J. & Kim, Myung-Ja & Han, Heesup, 2012. "The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for 2009 H1N1 influenza on travel intentions: A model of goal-directed behavior," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 89-99.
    23. Tobias S Brett & Pejman Rohani, 2020. "Dynamical footprints enable detection of disease emergence," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(5), pages 1-20, May.
    24. Wu, Dayu & Liu, Ying & Tang, Ming & Xu, Xiao-Ke & Guan, Shuguang, 2022. "Impact of hopping characteristics of inter-layer commuters on epidemic spreading in multilayer networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    25. Sen, Anindya & Baker, John David & Zhang, Qihuang & Agarwal, Rishav Raj & Lam, Jean-Paul, 2023. "Do more stringent policies reduce daily COVID-19 case counts? Evidence from Canadian provinces," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 225-242.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:674:y:2025:i:c:s0378437125003747. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.