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The adverse effects of large-scale vaccination on highly transmissible epidemics

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  • Zhou, Yinzuo
  • Liu, Yihan
  • Zhang, Xiyun
  • Zhou, Jie

Abstract

In this paper, we consider highly transmissible epidemics that incorporate a finite immunity period. Under the conditions where: (i) vaccines are partially effective, and (ii) hospital resources are limited, we find that large-scale vaccination may, however, lead to more cumulative infections as compared to small-scale vaccination. We demonstrate that the non-Markovian feature of the epidemic model plays an important role of this counterintuitive phenomenon, and we develop an approach to predict the thresholds of the epidemic process using a set of recurrent equations. Our findings may provide useful insights for administrative measures when encountering highly transmissible epidemics.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Yinzuo & Liu, Yihan & Zhang, Xiyun & Zhou, Jie, 2025. "The adverse effects of large-scale vaccination on highly transmissible epidemics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 674(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:674:y:2025:i:c:s0378437125003747
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2025.130722
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