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On detecting and modeling periodic correlation in financial data

Author

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  • Broszkiewicz-Suwaj, E
  • Makagon, A
  • Weron, R
  • Wyłomańska, A

Abstract

For many economic problems standard statistical analysis, based on the notion of stationarity, is not adequate. These include modeling seasonal decisions of consumers, forecasting business cycles and—as we show in the present article—modeling wholesale power market prices. We apply standard methods and a novel spectral domain technique to conclude that electricity price returns exhibit periodic correlation with daily and weekly periods. As such they should be modeled with periodically correlated processes. We propose to apply periodic autoregression models which are closely related to the standard instruments in econometric analysis—vector autoregression models.

Suggested Citation

  • Broszkiewicz-Suwaj, E & Makagon, A & Weron, R & Wyłomańska, A, 2004. "On detecting and modeling periodic correlation in financial data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 336(1), pages 196-205.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:336:y:2004:i:1:p:196-205
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2004.01.025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Politis, Dimitris N. & Romano, Joseph P. & Wolf, Michael, 1999. "On the asymptotic theory of subsampling," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6334, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Ewa Broszkiewicz-Suwaj, 2003. "Methods for determining the presence of periodic correlation based on the bootstrap methodology," HSC Research Reports HSC/03/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    3. Benkwitz, Alexander, 2000. "Multiple time series analysis," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,54, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Soumya Das & Marc G. Genton & Yasser M. Alshehri & Georgiy L. Stenchikov, 2021. "A cyclostationary model for temporal forecasting and simulation of solar global horizontal irradiance," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(8), December.
    2. Anna E. Dudek, 2018. "Block bootstrap for periodic characteristics of periodically correlated time series," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 87-124, January.
    3. ŁUkasz Lenart & Jacek Leśkow & Rafał Synowiecki, 2008. "Subsampling in testing autocovariance for periodically correlated time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(6), pages 995-1018, November.
    4. Bartosz Uniejewski & Jakub Nowotarski & Rafał Weron, 2016. "Automated Variable Selection and Shrinkage for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, August.
    5. T. Manouchehri & A. R. Nematollahi, 2019. "Periodic autoregressive models with closed skew-normal innovations," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 1183-1213, September.
    6. Misiorek Adam & Trueck Stefan & Weron Rafal, 2006. "Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-36, September.
    7. Mahmoudi, Mohammad Reza & Heydari, Mohammad Hossein & Roohi, Reza, 2019. "A new method to compare the spectral densities of two independent periodically correlated time series," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 103-110.
    8. Mohammadi, M. & Rezakhah, S. & Modarresi, N., 2020. "Semi-Lévy driven continuous-time GARCH process," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
    9. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
    10. Lozinskaia, Agata & Redkina, Anastasiia & Shenkman, Evgeniia, 2020. "Electricity consumption forecasting for integrated power system with seasonal patterns," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 60, pages 5-25.
    11. A. R. Nematollahi & A. R. Soltani & M. R. Mahmoudi, 2017. "Periodically correlated modeling by means of the periodograms asymptotic distributions," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1267-1278, December.
    12. Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi & Mohsen Maleki, 2017. "A new method to detect periodically correlated structure," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 1569-1581, December.
    13. Aleksandra Grzesiek & Prashant Giri & S. Sundar & Agnieszka WyŁomańska, 2020. "Measures of Cross‐Dependence for Bidimensional Periodic AR(1) Model with α‐Stable Distribution," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(6), pages 785-807, November.
    14. Ewa Broszkiewicz-Suwaj & Agnieszka Wylomanska, 2004. "Periodic correlation vs. integration and cointegration (Okresowa korelacja a integracja i kointegracja)," HSC Research Reports HSC/04/04, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    15. Mestekemper, Thomas & Kauermann, Göran & Smith, Michael S., 2013. "A comparison of periodic autoregressive and dynamic factor models in intraday energy demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-12.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Periodic correlation; Sample coherence; Electricity price; Periodic autoregression; Vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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