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Thermodynamic analogies in economics and finance: instability of markets

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  • McCauley, Joseph L.

Abstract

Interest in thermodynamic analogies in economics is older than the idea of von Neumann to look for market entropy in liquidity, advice that was not taken in any thermodynamic analogy presented so far in the literature. In this paper, we go further and use a standard strategy from trading theory to pinpoint why thermodynamic analogies necessarily fail to describe financial markets, in spite of the presence of liquidity as the underlying basis for market entropy. Market liquidity of frequently traded assets does play the role of the ‘heat bath‘, as anticipated by von Neumann, but we are able to identify the no-arbitrage condition geometrically as an assumption of translational and rotational invariance rather than (as finance theorists would claim) an equilibrium condition. We then use the empirical market distribution to introduce an asset's entropy and discuss the underlying reason why real financial markets cannot behave thermodynamically: financial markets are unstable, they do not approach statistical equilibrium, nor are there any available topological invariants on which to base a purely formal statistical mechanics. After discussing financial markets, we finally generalize our result by proposing that the idea of Adam Smith's Invisible Hand is a falsifiable proposition: we suggest how to test nonfinancial markets empirically for the stabilizing action of The Invisible Hand.

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  • McCauley, Joseph L., 2003. "Thermodynamic analogies in economics and finance: instability of markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 329(1), pages 199-212.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:329:y:2003:i:1:p:199-212
    DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(03)00591-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leonard I. Nakamura, 2000. "Economics and the new economy: the invisible hand meets creative destruction," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 15-30.
    2. J.L. McCauley & G.h. Gunaratne, 2002. "An empirical model of volatility of returns and option pricing," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 186, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Gemunu H. Gunaratne & Joseph L. McCauley, 2002. "A theory for Fluctuations in Stock Prices and Valuation of their Options," Papers cond-mat/0209475, arXiv.org.
    4. McCauley, Joseph L. & Gunaratne, Gemunu H., 2003. "An empirical model of volatility of returns and option pricing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 329(1), pages 178-198.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wayne, James J., 2014. "Generalized Second Law of Thermodynamics and Its Applications in Social Science," MPRA Paper 59734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Zapart, Christopher A., 2015. "Econophysics: A challenge to econometricians," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 318-327.
    3. Li, Shouwei & Zhuang, Yangyang & He, Jianmin, 2016. "Stock market stability: Diffusion entropy analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 450(C), pages 462-465.
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    5. Bucsa, G. & Jovanovic, F. & Schinckus, C., 2011. "A unified model for price return distributions used in econophysics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(20), pages 3435-3443.
    6. Wayne, James J., 2013. "Fundamental Equation of Economics," MPRA Paper 50695, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Arthur Matsuo Yamashita Rios de Sousa & Hideki Takayasu & Misako Takayasu, 2017. "Detection of statistical asymmetries in non-stationary sign time series: Analysis of foreign exchange data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(5), pages 1-18, May.
    8. Josip Stepanic, 2004. "Social Equivalent of Free Energy," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 2(1), pages 53-60.
    9. Sousa, Tânia & Domingos, Tiago, 2006. "Equilibrium econophysics: A unified formalism for neoclassical economics and equilibrium thermodynamics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 371(2), pages 492-512.
    10. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034, Decembrie.

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