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Exploring exchange rate returns at different time horizons


  • Nekhili, Ramzi
  • Altay-Salih, Aslihan
  • Gençay, Ramazan


This paper explores and compares the empirical distribution of the US dollar–deutsche mark exchange rate returns with well-known continuous-times processes at different frequencies. We use a variety of parametric models to simulate the unconditional density of the exchange rate returns at different frequencies, and show that the studied models do not fit the empirical distribution of exchange rate returns at both the high and low frequencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Nekhili, Ramzi & Altay-Salih, Aslihan & Gençay, Ramazan, 2002. "Exploring exchange rate returns at different time horizons," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 313(3), pages 671-682.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:313:y:2002:i:3:p:671-682
    DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(02)00986-X

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Orlov, Vitaly & Äijö, Janne, 2015. "Benefits of wavelet-based carry trade diversification," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 17-32.
    3. Wang, Dong-Hua & Yu, Xiao-Wen & Suo, Yuan-Yuan, 2012. "Statistical properties of the yuan exchange rate index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(12), pages 3503-3512.
    4. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Wagner, Niklas, 2014. "Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 71-81.
    5. Baruník, Jozef & Kočenda, Evžen & Vácha, Lukáš, 2016. "Gold, oil, and stocks: Dynamic correlations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 186-201.
    6. Boubaker Heni & Canarella Giorgio & Miller Stephen M. & Gupta Rangan, 2017. "Time-varying persistence of inflation: evidence from a wavelet-based approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
    7. Dias, Alexandra & Embrechts, Paul, 2010. "Modeling exchange rate dependence dynamics at different time horizons," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1687-1705, December.
    8. Chakrabarty, Anindya & De, Anupam & Gunasekaran, Angappa & Dubey, Rameshwar, 2015. "Investment horizon heterogeneity and wavelet: Overview and further research directions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 45-61.
    9. Avishek Bhandari & Bandi Kamaiah, 2021. "Long Memory and Fractality Among Global Equity Markets: a Multivariate Wavelet Approach," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 23-37, March.
    10. Tomáš Bunčák, 2016. "Exchange Rates Forecasting: Can Jump Models Combined with Macroeconomic Fundamentals Help?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(5), pages 527-546.
    11. K. Ivanova & M. Ausloos & H. Takayasu, 2003. "Deterministic and stochastic influences on Japan and US stock and foreign exchange markets. A Fokker-Planck approach," Papers cond-mat/0301268,
    12. Nekhili, Ramzi & Mensi, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Multiscale spillovers and connectedness between gold, copper, oil, wheat and currency markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Zhu, Huiming & Meng, Liang & Ge, Yajing & Hau, Liya, 2020. "Dependent relationships between Chinese commodity markets and the international financial market: Evidence from quantile time-frequency analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Zhang, Huimin & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2016. "Interdependence of foreign exchange markets: A wavelet coherence analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 6-14.
    15. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2020. "Happiness sentiments and the prediction of cross-border country exchange-traded fund returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. Kregždė Arvydas & Kišonaitė Karolina, 2018. "Co-movements of Lithuanian and Central European Stock Markets Across Different Time Horizons: A Wavelet Approach," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 97(2), pages 55-69, December.
    17. Bunčák, Tomáš, 2013. "Jump Processes in Exchange Rates Modeling," MPRA Paper 49882, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Sevda Kuşkaya & Nurhan Toğuç & Faik Bilgili, 2022. "Wavelet coherence analysis and exchange rate movements," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4675-4692, December.
    19. Tomáš Bunčák, . "Exchange Rates Forecasting: Can Jump Models Combined with Macroeconomic Fundamentals Help?," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-20.

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