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Monetary information arrivals and intraday exchange rate volatility : A comparison of the GARCH and the EGARCH models

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Abstract

In this article, we examine the intradaily Euro-dollar exchange rate volatility persistence result from the dissymmetric impact of monetary policy signals stemming from the ECB Council and the FOMC. A model is constructed by extending the AR(1)-GARCH (1,1) to an exponential process EGARCH (1,1), using high-frequency data (five minutes frequency) which integrates a polynomials structure depending on signal variables, starting from the deseasonalized exchange rate returns series. It is found that, unlike the equity market, the best volatility predictions are derived from the EGARCH(1,1) process.

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  • Darmoul Mokhtar & Nizar Harrathi, 2007. "Monetary information arrivals and intraday exchange rate volatility : A comparison of the GARCH and the EGARCH models," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne bla07035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:bla07035
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    Keywords

    Exchange rate; official intervention; monetary policy; GARCH models.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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