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An empirical study of credit spreads in an emerging market: The case of Korea

  • Park, Keehwan
  • Ahn, Chang Mo
  • Kim, Dohyeon
  • Kim, Saekwon
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    Empirically we test the Merton-type model (1974) of credit risk in an emerging market such as the Korean corporate bond market. For that purpose, we assume two alternative firm value processes: diffusion process for the Merton (1974) model and jump-diffusion process for our extended model in a general equilibrium setting. Our empirical results show that the diffusion model generally underpredicts spreads — which is referred to as “the credit spread underprediction puzzle” in the literature, while our jump-diffusion model somewhat raises the predicted spreads. We assert that jump raises the spreads on two grounds. First, an extremely large (negative) change tends to increase the probability for a firm to default particularly over a short-time horizon. Second, jump requires the systematic risk premium for a positively correlated firm particularly when the market turns extremely volatile.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Pacific-Basin Finance Journal.

    Volume (Year): 21 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 952-966

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:21:y:2013:i:1:p:952-966
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin

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