IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/mulfin/v18y2008i4p405-426.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does the value of recommendations depend on the level of optimism? A country-based analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Balboa, Marina
  • Gomez-Sala, Juan Carlos
  • Lopez-Espinosa, German

Abstract

This paper analyzes the value of analysts' consensus recommendations and their changes in eight developed stock markets using data from Factset/JCF, in the period from January 1994 to December 2006. Results show that analysts are optimistically biased, albeit to a different degree in each country; issuing a much higher number of buy than sell recommendations. Sell recommendations seem to be a stronger signal than buy recommendations and the latter are more valuable in countries with a low optimism bias. Consensus changes are a valuable tool for making investment decisions in every country, independently of the level of bias. Thus, the level of bias of each country matters in consensus levels but not in consensus changes. The value of analysts' outputs is ultimately an empirical question with meaningful implications for practitioners and academics, since they can focus on the relevant variables when making investment decisions or analyzing firms' future prospects.

Suggested Citation

  • Balboa, Marina & Gomez-Sala, Juan Carlos & Lopez-Espinosa, German, 2008. "Does the value of recommendations depend on the level of optimism? A country-based analysis," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 405-426, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:mulfin:v:18:y:2008:i:4:p:405-426
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042-444X(08)00011-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yonca Ertimur & Jayanthi Sunder & Shyam V. Sunder, 2007. "Measure for Measure: The Relation between Forecast Accuracy and Recommendation Profitability of Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 567-606, June.
    2. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Grossman, Seth, 1986. " Discrete Expectational Data and Portfolio Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 699-713, July.
    3. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    4. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Joonghyuk Kim & Susan D. Krische & Charles M. C. Lee, 2004. "Analyzing the Analysts: When Do Recommendations Add Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1083-1124, June.
    5. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Kim, Woojin, 2006. "Value of analyst recommendations: International evidence," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 274-309, August.
    6. Ulrike Malmendier & Devin Shanthikumar, 2014. "Do Security Analysts Speak in Two Tongues?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(5), pages 1287-1322.
    7. repec:bla:joares:v:35:y:1997:i:2:p:193-211 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    9. Chan, Howard W.H. & Brown, Rob & Ho, Yew Kee, 2006. "Initiation of brokers' recommendations, market predictors and stock returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 213-231, July.
    10. Brad Barber, 2001. "Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 531-563, April.
    11. Ivkovic, Zoran & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 2004. "The timing and value of forecast and recommendation revisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 433-463, September.
    12. Azzi, Sarah & Bird, Ron, 2005. "Prophets during boom and gloom downunder," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 337-367, February.
    13. Loh, Roger K. & Mian, G. Mujtaba, 2006. "Do accurate earnings forecasts facilitate superior investment recommendations?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 455-483, May.
    14. Chang, Millicent & Dallas, Isabel & Ng, Juliana, 2002. "Analyst forecast revisions and asset allocation in Asia-Pacific markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(4-5), pages 391-409.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. James S. Doran & Andy Fodor & Kevin Krieger, 2010. "Option Market Efficiency and Analyst Recommendations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5-6), pages 560-590.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:mulfin:v:18:y:2008:i:4:p:405-426. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/mulfin .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.