Does the value of recommendations depend on the level of optimism? A country-based analysis
This paper analyzes the value of analysts' consensus recommendations and their changes in eight developed stock markets using data from Factset/JCF, in the period from January 1994 to December 2006. Results show that analysts are optimistically biased, albeit to a different degree in each country; issuing a much higher number of buy than sell recommendations. Sell recommendations seem to be a stronger signal than buy recommendations and the latter are more valuable in countries with a low optimism bias. Consensus changes are a valuable tool for making investment decisions in every country, independently of the level of bias. Thus, the level of bias of each country matters in consensus levels but not in consensus changes. The value of analysts' outputs is ultimately an empirical question with meaningful implications for practitioners and academics, since they can focus on the relevant variables when making investment decisions or analyzing firms' future prospects.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ivkovic, Zoran & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 2004. "The timing and value of forecast and recommendation revisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 433-463, September.
- Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Grossman, Seth, 1986. " Discrete Expectational Data and Portfolio Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 699-713, July.
- Loh, Roger K. & Mian, G. Mujtaba, 2006. "Do accurate earnings forecasts facilitate superior investment recommendations?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 455-483, May.
- Ulrike Malmendier & Devin Shanthikumar, 2014.
"Do Security Analysts Speak in Two Tongues?,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(5), pages 1287-1322.
- Chan, Howard W.H. & Brown, Rob & Ho, Yew Kee, 2006. "Initiation of brokers' recommendations, market predictors and stock returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 213-231, July.
- Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Joonghyuk Kim & Susan D. Krische & Charles M. C. Lee, 2004. "Analyzing the Analysts: When Do Recommendations Add Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1083-1124, 06.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
- Yonca Ertimur & Jayanthi Sunder & Shyam V. Sunder, 2007. "Measure for Measure: The Relation between Forecast Accuracy and Recommendation Profitability of Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 567-606, 06.
- Azzi, Sarah & Bird, Ron, 2005. "Prophets during boom and gloom downunder," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 337-367, February.
- Chang, Millicent & Dallas, Isabel & Ng, Juliana, 2002. "Analyst forecast revisions and asset allocation in Asia-Pacific markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(4-5), pages 391-409.
- Brad Barber, 2001. "Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 531-563, 04.
- Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
- Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Kim, Woojin, 2006. "Value of analyst recommendations: International evidence," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 274-309, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:mulfin:v:18:y:2008:i:4:p:405-426. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.