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Likelihood of voting outcomes with generalized IAC probabilities

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  • McIntee, Tomas J.
  • Saari, Donald G.

Abstract

After determining all supporting profiles with any number of voters for any specified three-candidate pairwise majority vote outcome, a new, large class of “octahedral” probability distributions, motivated by and including IAC, is introduced to examine various three-candidate voting outcomes involving majority vote outcomes. Illustrating examples include computing each distribution’s likelihood of a majority vote cycle and the likelihood that the Borda Count and Condorcet winners agree. Surprisingly, computations often reduce to a simple exercise of finding the volumes of tetrahedrons.

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  • McIntee, Tomas J. & Saari, Donald G., 2017. "Likelihood of voting outcomes with generalized IAC probabilities," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matsoc:v:87:y:2017:i:c:p:1-10
    DOI: 10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2017.01.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Davide Cervone & William Gehrlein & William Zwicker, 2005. "Which Scoring Rule Maximizes Condorcet Efficiency Under Iac?," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 145-185, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. D. Marc Kilgour & Jean-Charles Grégoire & Angèle M. Foley, 2022. "Weighted scoring elections: is Borda best?," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 58(2), pages 365-391, February.

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