IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/mateco/v80y2019icp9-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Chaotic dynamics of a piecewise linear model of credit cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Asano, Takao
  • Yokoo, Masanori

Abstract

We develop a simple piecewise linear overlapping generations model exhibiting endogenous business cycles, which is based on Matsuyama’s (2007) model of credit cycles. Some sort of “noise” representing information imperfection is shown to transform the Matsuyama model into a continuous, eventually expanding, piecewise linear map on the interval, which is tractable enough to investigate the dynamics in depth by using the techniques of the Frobenius–Perron operators to find observable chaos. While, according to the analysis of Asano et al. (2012), the Matsuyama model exhibits periodic cycles of arbitrarily large period, it is essentially not capable of chaotic dynamics. However, our model exhibits ergodic chaos with some robustness.

Suggested Citation

  • Asano, Takao & Yokoo, Masanori, 2019. "Chaotic dynamics of a piecewise linear model of credit cycles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 9-21.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:mateco:v:80:y:2019:i:c:p:9-21
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2018.11.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030440681830123X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmateco.2018.11.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yokoo, Masanori & Ishida, Junichiro, 2008. "Misperception-driven chaos: Theory and policy implications," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1732-1753, June.
    2. Khan, M. Ali & Mitra, Tapan, 2012. "Long-Run Optimal Behavior In A Two-Sector Robinson–Solow–Srinivasan Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S1), pages 70-85, April.
    3. K. S. Chan & H. Tong, 1986. "On Estimating Thresholds In Autoregressive Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 179-190, May.
    4. Day, Richard H. & Pianigiani, Giulio, 1991. "Statistical dynamics and economics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 37-83, July.
    5. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
    6. Deng, Liuchun & Khan, M. Ali, 2018. "On growing through cycles: Matsuyama’s M-map and Li–Yorke chaos," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 46-55.
    7. Kiminori Matsuyama, 2007. "Credit Traps and Credit Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 503-516, March.
    8. Terasvirta, Timo & Tjostheim, Dag & Granger, Clive W. J., 2010. "Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199587155, Decembrie.
    9. ,, 2013. "The good, the bad, and the ugly: An inquiry into the causes and nature of credit cycles," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(3), September.
    10. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    11. Yokoo, Masanori, 2000. "Chaotic dynamics in a two-dimensional overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 909-934, June.
    12. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1991. "Endogenous Price Fluctuations in an Optimizing Model of a Monetary Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1617-1631, November.
    13. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Day, Richard H. & Pianigiani, Giulio, 1991. "Statistical Dynamics and Economics," Working Paper Series 293, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    15. Sousa, Paulo S. A., 2013. "Note On Ergodic Chaos In The Rss Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(7), pages 1519-1524, October.
    16. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1999. "Growing Through Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 335-348, March.
    17. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 2001. "Growing through Cycles in an Infinitely Lived Agent Economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 220-234, October.
    18. Ishida, Junichiro & Yokoo, Masanori, 2004. "Threshold nonlinearities and asymmetric endogenous business cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 175-189, June.
    19. Kazuo Nishimura & Makoto Yano, 2012. "Non-linear Dynamics and Chaos in Optimal Growth: An Example," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 127-150, Springer.
    20. Gardini, Laura & Sushko, Iryna & Naimzada, Ahmad K., 2008. "Growing through chaotic intervals," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 541-557, November.
    21. Matsuyama, Kiminori & Sushko, Iryna & Gardini, Laura, 2016. "Revisiting the model of credit cycles with Good and Bad projects," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 525-556.
    22. Matsumoto, Akio, 2005. "Density function of piecewise linear transformation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 631-653, April.
    23. Matsumoto, Akio, 2001. "Can inventory chaos be welfare improving," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-3), pages 31-43, May.
    24. Deng, Liuchun & Khan, M. Ali, 2018. "On Mitra’s sufficient condition for topological chaos: Seventeen years later," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 70-74.
    25. van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 2002. "A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 135-165, October.
    26. Benhabib, Jess & Day, Richard H., 1982. "A characterization of erratic dynamics in, the overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 37-55, November.
    27. Huang, Weihong, 2005. "On the statistical dynamics of economics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 543-565, April.
    28. Nishimura, Kazuo & Sorger, Gerhard & Yano, Makoto, 1994. "Ergodic Chaos in Optimal Growth Models with Low Discount Rates," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(5), pages 705-717, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laura Gardini & Noemi Schmitt & Iryna Sushko & Fabio Tramontana & Frank Westerhoff, 2019. "Necessary and sufficient conditions for the roots of a cubic polynomial and bifurcations of codimension-1, -2, -3 for 3D maps," Working Papers 1908, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2019.
    2. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Im, Ryonghun & Kunieda, Takuma & Shibata, Akihisa, 2022. "Financial destabilization," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Gardini, Laura & Radi, Davide & Schmitt, Noemi & Sushko, Iryna & Westerhoff, Frank, 2023. "Sentiment-driven business cycle dynamics: An elementary macroeconomic model with animal spirits," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 342-359.
    4. Umezuki, Yosuke & Yokoo, Masanori, 2019. "A simple model of growth cycles with technology choice," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 164-175.
    5. Takao Asano & Akihisa Shibata & Masanori Yokoo, 2021. "Polarization and Permanent Fluctuations: Quasi-Periodic Motions in a Two-Class OLG Model (Revised version with a new title "Quasi-Periodic Motions in a Polarized Overlapping Generations Model wit," KIER Working Papers 1063, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Takao Asano & Akihisa Shibata & Masanori Yokoo, 2021. "Quasi-Periodic Motions in a Polarized Overlapping Generations Model with Technology Choice," KIER Working Papers 1070, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    7. Jos'e Pedro Gaiv~ao & Benito Pires, 2022. "Chaotic time series in financial processes consisting of savings with piecewise constant monthly contributions," Papers 2206.11933, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Takao Asano & Masanori Yokoo, 2017. "Chaotic Dynamics of a Piecewise Linear Model of Credit Cycles with Imperfect Observability," KIER Working Papers 967, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    2. Yokoo, Masanori & Ishida, Junichiro, 2008. "Misperception-driven chaos: Theory and policy implications," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1732-1753, June.
    3. Takao Asano & Akihisa Shibata & Masanori Yokoo, 2024. "Technology choice, externalities in production, and a chaotic middle-income trap," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 29-56, January.
    4. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Im, Ryonghun & Kunieda, Takuma & Shibata, Akihisa, 2022. "Financial destabilization," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Bella, Giovanni, 2017. "Homoclinic bifurcation and the Belyakov degeneracy in a variant of the Romer model of endogenous growth," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 452-460.
    6. Schmitt, Noemi & Tuinstra, Jan & Westerhoff, Frank, 2017. "Side effects of nonlinear profit taxes in an evolutionary market entry model: Abrupt changes, coexisting attractors and hysteresis problems," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 15-38.
    7. Orlando Gomes, 2010. "Consumer confidence, endogenous growth and endogenous cycles," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(4), pages 377-404, September.
    8. Orlando Gomes, 2006. "Routes to chaos in macroeconomic theory," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(6), pages 437-468, November.
    9. Orlando Gomes, 2007. "Routes to chaos in macroeconomic theory," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(6), pages 437-468, January.
    10. Orlando Gomes, 2006. "Routes to chaos in macroeconomic theory," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(6), pages 437-468, November.
    11. Hommes, Cars & Huang, Hai & Wang, Duo, 2005. "A robust rational route to randomness in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1043-1072, June.
    12. Tamotsu Onozaki, 2018. "Nonlinearity, Bounded Rationality, and Heterogeneity," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-4-431-54971-0, November.
    13. Gomes, Orlando, 2015. "Optimal resource allocation in a representative investor economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 72-84.
    14. Takuma Kunieda & Akihisa Shibata, 2014. "Credit Market Imperfections and Macroeconomic Instability," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 592-611, December.
    15. Gardini, Laura & Radi, Davide & Schmitt, Noemi & Sushko, Iryna & Westerhoff, Frank, 2023. "Sentiment-driven business cycle dynamics: An elementary macroeconomic model with animal spirits," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 342-359.
    16. Bella, Giovanni & Mattana, Paolo & Venturi, Beatrice, 2017. "Shilnikov chaos in the Lucas model of endogenous growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 451-477.
    17. Chen, Hung-Ju & Li, Ming-Chia, 2008. "Productive public expenditures, expectation formations and nonlinear dynamics," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 109-126, July.
    18. Hommes, C.H. & Huang, H. & Wang, D., 2002. "A Robust Rational Route to in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    19. Goenka, Aditya & Poulsen, Odile, 2004. "Factor Intensity Reversal and Ergodic Chaos," Working Papers 04-13, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics.
    20. Laura Gardini & Noemi Schmitt & Iryna Sushko & Fabio Tramontana & Frank Westerhoff, 2019. "Necessary and sufficient conditions for the roots of a cubic polynomial and bifurcations of codimension-1, -2, -3 for 3D maps," Working Papers 1908, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2019.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:mateco:v:80:y:2019:i:c:p:9-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jmateco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.