Balloon effects reshaping global fisheries

The pressures of globalization have seldom proven conducive to sustainable resource management; marine capture fisheries are no exception. It has been convincingly argued that an uneven global governance landscape and the existence of untapped new frontiers for fisheries resources have historically caused a paradigm of serial depletion by so-called “roving bandits”. Here, it is suggested that marine resource exploitation has reached such a saturated state that few new frontiers exist, and that the paradigm of serial depletion will increasingly be replaced by balloon effects squeezing both licit and illicit fishing activities into areas of least statehood. Such trends will be most pronounced in highly migratory and straddling fisheries due to weak governance over areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ), but is also likely to occur within the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of weak states or small island states with vast marine territories. For decades, balloon effects have been the object of study in other disciplines, most notably international drug control and, more recently, carbon leakage. This body of knowledge represents a crucial resource for developing multi-level, holistic management interventions to prevent fisheries management challenges from simply being displaced from one area to another.