Land use policy and spatiotemporal changes in the water area of an arid region

In this study, we developed a framework to analyze the impact of land use policies on water area changes. We used quantitative and qualitative approaches in our model, including Delphi method, Moran’s I, 3D kernel density surface (3D-KDS) technique, and orthogonalized regression. The model facilitates visual examination of spatiotemporal patterns in water area changes and identification of the net effect of land use policies on water area changes. We consider three types of land use policy and four control variables which include water management policy and climate change factors to test the model by using data from Ejina, an oasis area from Inner Mongolia, China. The results of both 3D-KDS and Moran’s I coefficient showed distinctive patterns in negative and positive water area changes. Standardized coefficients from the augmented orthogonalized ordinary least squares (OLS) models helped isolate the net effects of the three types of land use policy on negative and positive water area changes. Land use policies had greater impact on hydrological environment changes than water management policy and climate change factors. Our model can be utilized to assess the effectiveness of land use policies in an area and aid in helpful in monitoring the implementation of existing policies and design of new land use policies.