The nature of a ‘forest transition’ in Thừa Thiên Huế Province, Central Vietnam – A study of land cover changes over five decades

Informed from historical case studies of land cover change and development in northern countries, forest transition (FT) theories have a tendency to precast specific conclusions. Considering the case of a so-called FT in Thừa Thiên Huế Province in tropical Central Vietnam, we investigated 1.) whether such a ‘FT’ indeed reflects a resurgence of genuine forest, 2.) whether the land cover changes can be explained through conventional ‘pathways’ of FT, and 3.) in which ways the changes may or may not portend ‘sustainable development’. Using satellite imagery and topographic maps, we produced maps for twenty land cover types for the years 1966, 1973, 1979, 1988, 1998, 2008, 2016 and 2019 and analysed land cover change over time. We contextualize these results with reference to the historical and scientific literature on Vietnam, and find that 1.) the forestlands represent a historically rich bio-cultural landscape; 2.) considerable forest destruction resulted from the Second Indochina War rather than classical degradation pathways; 3.) in the post-war period altered forestland spaces and re-emerging land uses interacted with state-led re-territorialization and socialist plans for land resource development, influencing shifts in forest cover; 4.) during 1979–1988 state-led intensive timber logging in remaining rainforests (causing widespread forest degradation) somewhat paradoxically (in terms of conventional FT models and theories) coincided already with a slight increase in lower-biomass tree cover; 5.) after 1988 logging in natural forests was officially prohibited (logging bans), and forestry shifted to a reliance on wood produced in acacia-based plantations (largely on lands officially allocated to households); and 6.) this shift went along with a significant state-led restructuring and development of land use policies and the promotion of forest-relevant economic industries. ‘Restoration’ of tree cover mainly consisted of the expansion of exotic tree plantations, but – at least intermittently – this may also have mitigated impacts on natural forests. We conclude with some reflections on the FT-outcome, its ‘sustainability’, and future trajectories and possibilities of land cover changes in TTHP.