IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lauspo/v132y2023ics026483772300220x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal implications of flooding on relocation risk in rural and urban coastal municipalities

Author

Listed:
  • Bukvic, A.
  • Mitchell, A.
  • Shao, Y.
  • Irish, J.L.

Abstract

The research on coastal hazards predicts substantial adverse impacts of chronic and episodic flooding on populated coastal areas. Despite the growing evidence about anticipated flood risks, many coastal communities are still not adapting. The observed disconnect between science on physical impacts and adaptation decision-making in part reflects stakeholders’ inability to envision the implications of these impacts on socioeconomic systems and the built environment in their jurisdictions. This inertia is particularly apparent in the discourse on flood-driven displacement and relocation. There is a lack of knowledge about direct and indirect flood impacts on community attributes and services that contribute to relocation decision-making. This study holistically evaluates the flood exposure on municipal features vital for socioeconomic stability, livelihoods, and quality of life across spatiotemporal scales. As such, it uses a more nuanced approach to relocation risk assessment than those solely focused on direct inundation impacts. It measures flood exposure of land use, land cover, and sociocultural and economic dimensions that are important drivers of relocation in selected rural and urban areas. The approach uses a 50-year floodplain to delineate populated coastal locations exposed to 2% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) storm surge projections adjusted for 2030, 2060, and 2090 sea level rise (SLR) scenarios. It then evaluates the potential impacts of this flood exposure on different types of land uses and critical socioeconomic assets in rural (Dorchester and Talbot Counties, Maryland, USA) and urban (Cities of Hampton, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Virginia Beach, Virginia, USA) settings. The results show that some urban land uses, such as open space, military and mixed-use, and rural residential and commercial areas, might experience significantly more flooding. There are also notable differences in the baseline flood exposure and the anticipated rate and acceleration in the future among selected communities with significant implications for relocation planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Bukvic, A. & Mitchell, A. & Shao, Y. & Irish, J.L., 2023. "Spatiotemporal implications of flooding on relocation risk in rural and urban coastal municipalities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:132:y:2023:i:c:s026483772300220x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106754
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026483772300220X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106754?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cyriac, Susan & Firoz C, Mohammed, 2022. "Dichotomous classification and implications in spatial planning: A case of the Rural-Urban Continuum settlements of Kerala, India," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    2. Barbara Neumann & Athanasios T Vafeidis & Juliane Zimmermann & Robert J Nicholls, 2015. "Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-34, March.
    3. Linda Shi & Anjali Fisher & Rebecca M. Brenner & Amelia Greiner-Safi & Christine Shepard & Jamie Vanucchi, 2022. "Equitable buyouts? Learning from state, county, and local floodplain management programs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-20, October.
    4. Scott A. Kulp & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2019. "New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. David López-Carr & Jessica Marter-Kenyon, 2015. "Human adaptation: Manage climate-induced resettlement," Nature, Nature, vol. 517(7534), pages 265-267, January.
    6. Nick Taylor & Jennifer Irish & Ikpoto Udoh & Matthew Bilskie & Scott Hagen, 2015. "Development and uncertainty quantification of hurricane surge response functions for hazard assessment in coastal bays," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1103-1123, June.
    7. Balta, Sıla & Atik, Meryem, 2022. "Rural planning guidelines for urban-rural transition zones as a tool for the protection of rural landscape characters and retaining urban sprawl: Antalya case from Mediterranean," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    8. Craig E. Landry & Okmyung Bin & Paul Hindsley & John C. Whitehead & Kenneth Wilson, 2007. "Going Home: Evacuation-Migration Decisions of Hurrican Katrina Survivors," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(2), pages 326-343, October.
    9. Craig E. Landry & Okmyung Bin & Paul Hindsley & John C. Whitehead & Kenneth Wilson, 2007. "Going Home: Evacuation‐Migration Decisions of Hurricane Katrina Survivors," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(2), pages 326-343, October.
    10. Jejal Reddy Bathi & Himangshu S. Das, 2016. "Vulnerability of Coastal Communities from Storm Surge and Flood Disasters," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-12, February.
    11. J. Barnett & S. Graham & C. Mortreux & R. Fincher & E. Waters & A. Hurlimann, 2014. "A local coastal adaptation pathway," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(12), pages 1103-1108, December.
    12. Li, Sheng & Nadolnyak, Denis & Hartarska, Valentina, 2019. "Agricultural land conversion: Impacts of economic and natural risk factors in a coastal area," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 380-390.
    13. Kim S. Alexander & Anthony Ryan & Thomas G. Measham, 2012. "Managed retreat of coastal communities: understanding responses to projected sea level rise," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 409-433, June.
    14. D. Yoon, 2012. "Assessment of social vulnerability to natural disasters: a comparative study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 823-843, September.
    15. Jie Song & Xinyu Fu & Ruoniu Wang & Zhong-Ren Peng & Zongni Gu, 2018. "Does planned retreat matter? Investigating land use change under the impacts of flooding induced by sea level rise," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 703-733, June.
    16. David Godschalk & Adam Rose & Elliott Mittler & Keith Porter & Carol Taylor West, 2009. "Estimating the value of foresight: aggregate analysis of natural hazard mitigation benefits and costs," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(6), pages 739-756.
    17. Andrew L. Dannenberg & Howard Frumkin & Jeremy J. Hess & Kristie L. Ebi, 2019. "Managed retreat as a strategy for climate change adaptation in small communities: public health implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 1-14, March.
    18. Jessica R. Z. Simms & Helen L. Waller & Chris Brunet & Pamela Jenkins, 2021. "The long goodbye on a disappearing, ancestral island: a just retreat from Isle de Jean Charles," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 11(3), pages 316-328, September.
    19. Jeffrey Groen & Anne Polivka, 2010. "Going home after Hurricane Katrina: Determinants of return migration and changes in affected areas," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(4), pages 821-844, November.
    20. K. Warner & M. Hamza & A. Oliver-Smith & F. Renaud & A. Julca, 2010. "Climate change, environmental degradation and migration," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 55(3), pages 689-715, December.
    21. Fischer, Alexandra Paige, 2018. "Pathways of adaptation to external stressors in coastal natural-resource-dependent communities: Implications for climate change," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 235-248.
    22. Susan L. Cutter & Bryan J. Boruff & W. Lynn Shirley, 2003. "Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 84(2), pages 242-261, June.
    23. Carol Farbotko & Olivia Dun & Fanny Thornton & Karen E. McNamara & Celia McMichael, 2020. "Relocation planning must address voluntary immobility," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(8), pages 702-704, August.
    24. Qingmu Su & Hsueh-Sheng Chang & Shin-En Pai, 2022. "A Comparative Study of the Resilience of Urban and Rural Areas under Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-14, July.
    25. Mark Schuerch & Tom Spencer & Stijn Temmerman & Matthew L. Kirwan & Claudia Wolff & Daniel Lincke & Chris J. McOwen & Mark D. Pickering & Ruth Reef & Athanasios T. Vafeidis & Jochen Hinkel & Robert J., 2018. "Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise," Nature, Nature, vol. 561(7722), pages 231-234, September.
    26. Rifat, Shaikh Abdullah Al & Liu, Weibo, 2022. "Predicting future urban growth scenarios and potential urban flood exposure using Artificial Neural Network-Markov Chain model in Miami Metropolitan Area," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    27. Mir Mousavi & Jennifer Irish & Ashley Frey & Francisco Olivera & Billy Edge, 2011. "Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 575-597, February.
    28. Anamaria Bukvic, 2015. "Identifying gaps and inconsistencies in the use of relocation rhetoric: a prerequisite for sound relocation policy and planning," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(7), pages 1203-1209, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anamaria Bukvic, 2015. "Integrated framework for the Relocation Potential Assessment of Coastal Communities (RPACC): application to Hurricane Sandy-affected areas," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 264-278, June.
    2. Barbieri, Stefano & Edwards, John H.Y., 2017. "Middle-class flight from post-Katrina New Orleans: A theoretical analysis of inequality and schooling," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 12-29.
    3. Angela Mallette & Timothy F. Smith & Carmen Elrick-Barr & Jessica Blythe & Ryan Plummer, 2021. "Understanding Preferences for Coastal Climate Change Adaptation: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-22, August.
    4. Ariel R. Belasen & Solomon W. Polachek, 2013. "Natural disasters and migration," Chapters, in: Amelie F. Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Migration, chapter 17, pages 309-330, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Vicki Marion Bier, 2017. "Understanding and Mitigating the Impacts of Massive Relocations Due to Disasters," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 179-202, July.
    6. Johar, Meliyanni & Johnston, David W. & Shields, Michael A. & Siminski, Peter & Stavrunova, Olena, 2022. "The economic impacts of direct natural disaster exposure," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 26-39.
    7. Shingo Nagamatsu & Adam Rose & Jonathan Eyer, 2020. "Return Migration and Decontamination After the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Disaster," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 800-817, April.
    8. Alistair Munro & Shunsuke Managi, 2017. "Going Back: Radiation and Intentions to Return amongst Households Evacuated after the Great Tohoku Earthquake," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 77-93, June.
    9. Laura A. Bakkensen & Xiaozhou Ding & Lala Ma, 2019. "Flood Risk and Salience: New Evidence from the Sunshine State," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(4), pages 1132-1158, April.
    10. Daniel Felsenstein & Michal Lichter, 2014. "Social and economic vulnerability of coastal communities to sea-level rise and extreme flooding," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 463-491, March.
    11. Narayan Sastry & Jesse Gregory, 2014. "The Location of Displaced New Orleans Residents in the Year After Hurricane Katrina," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(3), pages 753-775, June.
    12. Lena Reimann & Bryan Jones & Nora Bieker & Claudia Wolff & Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2023. "Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    13. Qin Fan & Meri Davlasheridze, 2019. "Economic Impacts Of Migration And Brain Drain After Major Catastrophe: The Case Of Hurricane Katrina," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-21, February.
    14. Gainbi Park & Zengwang Xu, 2022. "The constituent components and local indicator variables of social vulnerability index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(1), pages 95-120, January.
    15. Tubridy, Fiadh & Lennon, Mick & Scott, Mark, 2022. "Managed retreat and coastal climate change adaptation: The environmental justice implications and value of a coproduction approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    16. Richard J. Cebula & J.R. Clark, 2011. "Migration, Economic Freedom, and Personal Freedom: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 27(Fall 2011), pages 43-62.
    17. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    18. Chipo Mudavanhu & Tawanda Manyangadze & Emmanuel Mavhura & Ezra Pedzisai & Desmond Manatsa, 2020. "Rural households’ vulnerability and risk of flooding in Mbire District, Zimbabwe," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 3591-3608, September.
    19. Seunghoo Jeong & D. K. Yoon, 2018. "Examining Vulnerability Factors to Natural Disasters with a Spatial Autoregressive Model: The Case of South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-13, May.
    20. Seunghoo Jeong & Byeong Je Kim & Young‐Joo Lee & Ji‐Bum Chung & Sung‐Han Sim, 2020. "Individual Disaster Assistance For Socially Vulnerable People: Lessons Learned From the Pohang Earthquake in the Republic of Korea," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(11), pages 2373-2389, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:132:y:2023:i:c:s026483772300220x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joice Jiang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/land-use-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.