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Exogenous risk assessment of a Belt-and-Road renewable energy project

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  • Zhao, Xuan
  • Peng, Benhong
  • Zheng, Chaoyu

Abstract

Along the "Belt and Road," renewable energy projects face exogenous risks. Given the multifaceted impact pathways through which these risks manifest, it is imperative to conduct timely and accurate assessments of such risks. This study endeavors to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system tailored to the exogenous risks associated with renewable energy projects along the "Belt and Road" route. By integrating the G1 and CRITIC methods for composite weighting, the study derives the comprehensive weight of each indicator within the system. This study acknowledges the inherent uncertainty characteristics of exogenous risks by employing the measurement uncertainty theory to assess project risk. This approach enables more precise quantification of uncertainty and incomplete information, empowering enterprises to respond to exogenous risks more effectively. The findings reveal that the exogenous risk-impact-response evaluation model not only effectively mitigates the subjectivity inherent in expert cognition but also adeptly manages the uncertainty and suddenness associated with the impact of exogenous risks on renewable energy projects. Consequently, this model assists enterprises in implementing timely risk prevention and management measures, thereby enhancing their resilience and adaptability in the face of such challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Xuan & Peng, Benhong & Zheng, Chaoyu, 2025. "Exogenous risk assessment of a Belt-and-Road renewable energy project," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:95:y:2025:i:c:s0957178725000712
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.101956
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