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Determination of the effect of operating cost uncertainty on mining project evaluation


  • Dehghani, Hesam
  • Ataee-pour, Majid


Mining projects are complex businesses that demand constant risk assessment. This is because several kinds of uncertainties influence the value of a mine project, typically. These uncertainties may be classified as exploration uncertainties, economic uncertainties and engineering uncertainties. The evaluation of a mine project under these uncertainties is a complicated job, which may lead to making a wrong decision by managers and stockholders. Therefore, at first, the engineers must recognize the mining uncertainties before carrying out the project evaluation. The economic uncertainties are the most important factors, which may affect the project evaluation. Among the mentioned uncertainties, the operating cost uncertainty is an important and effective factor, which is ignored to a certain extent.

Suggested Citation

  • Dehghani, Hesam & Ataee-pour, Majid, 2012. "Determination of the effect of operating cost uncertainty on mining project evaluation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 109-117.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:37:y:2012:i:1:p:109-117
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2011.11.001

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Moyen, Nathalie & Slade, Margaret & Uppal, Raman, 1996. "Valuing risk and flexibility : A comparison of methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1-2), pages 63-74.
    2. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    3. Trigeorgis, Lenos, 1993. "The Nature of Option Interactions and the Valuation of Investments with Multiple Real Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(01), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Kelly, Simone, 1998. "A Binomial Lattice Approach for Valuing a Mining Property IPO," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 693-709.
    5. Alberto Moel, 2002. "When Are Real Options Exercised? An Empirical Study of Mine Closings," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 35-64, March.
    6. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dehghani, Hesam & Ataee-pour, Majid & Esfahanipour, Akbar, 2014. "Evaluation of the mining projects under economic uncertainties using multidimensional binomial tree," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 124-133.
    2. Fan, Ying & Mo, Jian-Lei & Zhu, Lei, 2013. "Evaluating coal bed methane investment in China based on a real options model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 50-59.
    3. Evatt, Geoffrey William & Soltan, Mousa Omid & Johnson, Paul V., 2012. "Mineral reserves under price uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 340-345.
    4. Savolainen, Jyrki, 2016. "Real options in metal mining project valuation: Review of literature," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-65.
    5. Rahimi, Esmaeil & Ghasemzadeh, Hasan, 2015. "A new algorithm to determine optimum cut-off grades considering technical, economical, environmental and social aspects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P1), pages 51-63.

    More about this item


    Economic uncertainty; Metal price; Operating costs; Net present value; Binomial tree technique;

    JEL classification:

    • Q39 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Other


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