How valid are long-term government plans? Technological forecasting of the Korean biotechnology industry
The biotechnology industry has the potential to add economic spillover effects to a national economy but heavy investment and systematic planning are required. In 2007, Korea started the second stage of an ambitious government-led program, Bio Vision 2016, which is aimed to create an extended market size of 60 billion U.S. dollars by 2016. But, our long-term forecasting techniques predict roughly 5.5 billion U.S. dollars in constant price by 2016. Considering both professional judgment and the degree of current Korean government policies toward heavy investments in the biotechnology industries, however, is crucial to produce an accurate forecast. Thus, after these adjustments, the forecast value of the market size increases from 13 billion to 33 billion nominal U.S. dollars, depending on the investment strategy choices. We explain how our long-term forecasting values are computed and discuss possible reasons for the discrepancy between those prediction values. Also, we provide policy debates on whether the government goals are fully achievable.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Artuso, Anthony, 2002. "Bioprospecting, Benefit Sharing, and Biotechnological Capacity Building," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1355-1368, August.
- Yang, Ji-Chung, 2005. "Impact measurement for public investment evaluation: An application to Korea," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 535-551, July.
- Kim, Heon-Goo & Oh, Jeong Hun, 2004. "The role of IT on the Korean economy under IMF control," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 181-190, February.
- Klein, Lawrence R., 2006. "Issues posed by chronic US deficits," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 673-677, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:6:p:891-902. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.