IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jotrge/v109y2023ics0966692323000595.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Combatting the mismatch: Modeling bike-sharing rental and return machine learning classification forecast in Seoul, South Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Choi, Seung Jun
  • Jiao, Junfeng
  • Lee, Hye Kyung
  • Farahi, Arya

Abstract

Bike-sharing is rapidly gaining popularity due to health, transportation, and recreational benefits. As more people use bike-sharing, the burden of reallocating bikes will increase because of the mismatch between outgoing and incoming bikes. Optimizing truck routes, incentivizing users, and crowdsourcing are common suggestions to mitigate rebalancing issues. This research aims to provide a procedure to adjust landscape conditions as an alternative strategy. Comprehensive landscape metrics are quantified by FRAGSTATS analysis. Using public bike-sharing data in Seoul, South Korea, we analyzed spatial and temporal mismatch characteristics. Hot spot analysis was conducted to identify hot and cold spots of bike-sharing use in two scenarios: outgoing and incoming trips. This was used to generate tree-based binary ensemble machine learning classification models. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were calculated between hot and cold spots to understand how landscape characteristics and other determinants affect the mismatch. Our results suggest that climate and bike-sharing related factors significantly affect bike-sharing use. Transportation land use and landscape characteristics like the magnitude of biodiversity, contiguity, shape, area, and edge significantly contribute to labeling. The findings of this study can help bike-sharing operators better navigate their bike-sharing services.

Suggested Citation

  • Choi, Seung Jun & Jiao, Junfeng & Lee, Hye Kyung & Farahi, Arya, 2023. "Combatting the mismatch: Modeling bike-sharing rental and return machine learning classification forecast in Seoul, South Korea," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:109:y:2023:i:c:s0966692323000595
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2023.103587
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692323000595
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2023.103587?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jessica Schoner & David Levinson, 2014. "The missing link: bicycle infrastructure networks and ridership in 74 US cities," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(6), pages 1187-1204, November.
    2. Hyungkyoo Kim, 2020. "Seasonal Impacts of Particulate Matter Levels on Bike Sharing in Seoul, South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-17, June.
    3. Kim, Kyoungok, 2018. "Investigation on the effects of weather and calendar events on bike-sharing according to the trip patterns of bike rentals of stations," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 309-320.
    4. Corcoran, Jonathan & Li, Tiebei & Rohde, David & Charles-Edwards, Elin & Mateo-Babiano, Derlie, 2014. "Spatio-temporal patterns of a Public Bicycle Sharing Program: the effect of weather and calendar events," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 292-305.
    5. Kyle Gebhart & Robert Noland, 2014. "The impact of weather conditions on bikeshare trips in Washington, DC," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(6), pages 1205-1225, November.
    6. Jian Jiang & Fei Lin & Jin Fan & Hang Lv & Jia Wu, 2019. "A Destination Prediction Network Based on Spatiotemporal Data for Bike-Sharing," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-14, January.
    7. Teixeira, João Filipe & Silva, Cecília & Moura e Sá, Frederico, 2022. "The strengths and weaknesses of bike sharing as an alternative mode during disruptive public health crisis: A qualitative analysis on the users’ motivations during COVID-19," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 24-37.
    8. Lu, Wei & Scott, Darren M. & Dalumpines, Ron, 2018. "Understanding bike share cyclist route choice using GPS data: Comparing dominant routes and shortest paths," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 172-181.
    9. Christine Fricker & Nicolas Gast, 2016. "Incentives and redistribution in homogeneous bike-sharing systems with stations of finite capacity," EURO Journal on Transportation and Logistics, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 5(3), pages 261-291, August.
    10. Dell’Amico, Mauro & Iori, Manuel & Novellani, Stefano & Subramanian, Anand, 2018. "The Bike sharing Rebalancing Problem with Stochastic Demands," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 362-380.
    11. Kim, Minjun & Cho, Gi-Hyoug, 2021. "Analysis on bike-share ridership for origin-destination pairs: Effects of public transit route characteristics and land-use patterns," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    12. Efthymiou, Dimitrios & Antoniou, Constantinos & Waddell, Paul, 2013. "Factors affecting the adoption of vehicle sharing systems by young drivers," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 64-73.
    13. Wang, Kailai & Akar, Gulsah & Chen, Yu-Jen, 2018. "Bike sharing differences among Millennials, Gen Xers, and Baby Boomers: Lessons learnt from New York City’s bike share," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 1-14.
    14. Peiyu Yi & Feihu Huang & Jian Peng, 2019. "A Rebalancing Strategy for the Imbalance Problem in Bike-Sharing Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-18, July.
    15. Kutela, Boniphace & Teng, Hualiang, 2019. "The influence of campus characteristics, temporal factors, and weather events on campuses-related daily bike-share trips," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 160-169.
    16. Filipe Teixeira, João & Silva, Cecília & Moura e Sá, Frederico, 2022. "The role of bike sharing during the coronavirus pandemic: An analysis of the mobility patterns and perceptions of Lisbon’s GIRA users," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 17-34.
    17. Nankervis, Max, 1999. "The effect of weather and climate on bicycle commuting," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 417-431, August.
    18. Bongiorno, Christian & Santucci, Daniele & Kon, Fabio & Santi, Paolo & Ratti, Carlo, 2019. "Comparing bicycling and pedestrian mobility: Patterns of non-motorized human mobility in Greater Boston," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gong, Wenjing & Rui, Jin & Li, Tianyu, 2024. "Deciphering urban bike-sharing patterns: An in-depth analysis of natural environment and visual quality in New York's Citi bike system," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    2. Noland, Robert B., 2021. "Scootin’ in the rain: Does weather affect micromobility?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 114-123.
    3. Mehzabin Tuli, Farzana & Mitra, Suman & Crews, Mariah B., 2021. "Factors influencing the usage of shared E-scooters in Chicago," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 164-185.
    4. Mariano J. Rabassa & Mariana Conte Grand & Christian M. García-Witulski, 2021. "Heat warnings and avoidance behavior: evidence from a bike-sharing system," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 23(1), pages 1-28, January.
    5. Hyungkyoo Kim, 2020. "Seasonal Impacts of Particulate Matter Levels on Bike Sharing in Seoul, South Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-17, June.
    6. Sebastian Rühmann & Stephan Leible & Tom Lewandowski, 2024. "Interpretable Bike-Sharing Activity Prediction with a Temporal Fusion Transformer to Unveil Influential Factors: A Case Study in Hamburg, Germany," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-32, April.
    7. Bean, Richard & Pojani, Dorina & Corcoran, Jonathan, 2021. "How does weather affect bikeshare use? A comparative analysis of forty cities across climate zones," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    8. Morton, Craig, 2020. "The demand for cycle sharing: Examining the links between weather conditions, air quality levels, and cycling demand for regular and casual users," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    9. Wessel, Jan, 2020. "Using weather forecasts to forecast whether bikes are used," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 537-559.
    10. Zhang, Xiang & Li, Wence, 2023. "Effects of a bike sharing system and COVID-19 on low-carbon traffic modal shift and emission reduction," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 42-64.
    11. Wu, Weitiao & Li, Yu, 2024. "Pareto truck fleet sizing for bike relocation with stochastic demand: Risk-averse multi-stage approximate stochastic programming," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    12. Zhao, Chunkai & Wang, Yuhang & Ge, Zhenyu, 2023. "Is digital finance environmentally friendly in China? Evidence from shared-bike trips," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 129-143.
    13. Rayane El Sibai & Khalil Challita & Jacques Bou Abdo & Jacques Demerjian, 2021. "A New User-Based Incentive Strategy for Improving Bike Sharing Systems’ Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-18, March.
    14. Li, Shaoying & Zhuang, Caigang & Tan, Zhangzhi & Gao, Feng & Lai, Zhipeng & Wu, Zhifeng, 2021. "Inferring the trip purposes and uncovering spatio-temporal activity patterns from dockless shared bike dataset in Shenzhen, China," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    15. Médard de Chardon, Cyrille & Caruso, Geoffrey & Thomas, Isabelle, 2017. "Bicycle sharing system ‘success’ determinants," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 202-214.
    16. Teixeira, João Filipe & Silva, Cecília & Moura e Sá, Frederico, 2023. "Factors influencing modal shift to bike sharing: Evidence from a travel survey conducted during COVID-19," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    17. Hong, Jinhyun & Philip McArthur, David & Stewart, Joanna L., 2020. "Can providing safe cycling infrastructure encourage people to cycle more when it rains? The use of crowdsourced cycling data (Strava)," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 109-121.
    18. Ding, Hongliang & Lu, Yuhuan & Sze, N.N. & Li, Haojie, 2022. "Effect of dockless bike-sharing scheme on the demand for London Cycle Hire at the disaggregate level using a deep learning approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 150-163.
    19. Yongji Jia & Wang Zeng & Yanting Xing & Dong Yang & Jia Li, 2020. "The Bike-Sharing Rebalancing Problem Considering Multi-Energy Mixed Fleets and Traffic Restrictions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    20. Wang, Jueyu & Lindsey, Greg, 2019. "Do new bike share stations increase member use: A quasi-experimental study," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 1-11.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:109:y:2023:i:c:s0966692323000595. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-transport-geography .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.