A copula-based model of speculative price dynamics in discrete time
This paper suggests a new technique to construct first order Markov processes using products of copula functions, in the spirit of Darsow etÂ al. (1992)Â . The approach requires the definition of (i) a sequence of distribution functions of the increments of the process, and (ii) a sequence of copula functions representing dependence between each increment of the process and the corresponding level of the process before the increment. The paper shows how to use the approach to build several kinds of processes (stable, elliptical, Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern, Archimedean and martingale processes), and how to extend the analysis to the multivariate setting. The technique turns out to be well suited to provide a discrete time representation of the dynamics of innovations to financial prices under the restrictions imposed by the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
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Volume (Year): 102 (2011)
Issue (Month): 6 (July)
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Beare, Brendan K., 2010. "Archimedean Copulas and Temporal Dependence," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt0xh8q1g3, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Fang, Hong-Bin & Fang, Kai-Tai & Kotz, Samuel, 2002. "The Meta-elliptical Distributions with Given Marginals," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 1-16, July.
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- Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006. "Estimation of copula-based semiparametric time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 307-335, February.
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- repec:sae:ecolab:v:16:y:2006:i:2:p:1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Brendan K. Beare, 2010. "Copulas and Temporal Dependence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 395-410, 01.
- Paul A. Samuelson, 1973. "Proof That Properly Discounted Present Values of Assets Vibrate Randomly," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(2), pages 369-374, Autumn.
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