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The microdynamics of household credit use through a boom–bust cycle

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  • Andersson, Fredrik
  • Mayock, Tom

Abstract

In this paper we provide what we believe to be the first evidence on the nature of gross debt flows across consumers. We find that the aggregate dynamics in the consumer debt market are largely explained by the behavior of consumers with mortgage debt, and the behavior of such consumers is found to be sensitive to changes in housing market conditions. Our results show that there is a significant amount of consumer-level heterogeneity as evidenced by large amounts of simultaneous debt creation and debt destruction throughout the economic cycle. Finally, we find that there are important asymmetries in the debt adjustment process: whereas consumers are able to take on large amounts of additional debt quickly, short of defaulting debt is discharged very slowly. This slow deleveraging process may help explain why total consumer debt levels have been so slow to recover in the years following the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersson, Fredrik & Mayock, Tom, 2015. "The microdynamics of household credit use through a boom–bust cycle," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 22-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:27:y:2015:i:c:p:22-36
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2015.02.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2017. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(3), pages 1427-1467.
    2. Atif Mian & Kamalesh Rao & Amir Sufi, 2013. "Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1687-1726.
    3. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-2156, August.
    4. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
    5. Ben R. Craig & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2013. "Gross Loan Flows," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 401-421, March.
    6. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Pietro Garibaldi, 2005. "Gross Credit Flows," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 665-685.
    7. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 819-863.
    8. Herrera, Ana Maria & Kolar, Marek & Minetti, Raoul, 2011. "Credit reallocation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 551-563.
    9. Robert E. Hall, 2011. "The Long Slump," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 431-469, April.
    10. Robert B. Avery & Paul S. Calem & Glenn B. Canner, 2003. "An overview of consumer data and credit reporting," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 89(Feb), pages 47-73, February.
    11. Atif R. Mian & Amir Sufi, 2012. "What explains high unemployment? The aggregate demand channel," NBER Working Papers 17830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bekiros, Stelios & Laarem, Guessas & Mou, Jun & Al-Barakati, Abdullah A. & Jahanshahi, Hadi, 2023. "Heterogeneous agent-based modeling of endogenous boom-bust cycles in financial markets with adaptive expectations and dynamically switching fractions between contrarian and fundamental market entry st," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gross credit flows; Deleveraging; Financial crisis; Consumer credit; D14; E51; G01;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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