IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfpoli/v94y2020ics0306919219306323.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Shocks and agricultural investment decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Newman, Carol
  • Tarp, Finn

Abstract

This study explores the impact of weather shocks on the investment decisions of farmers. We distinguish between the long-term effect of exposure to weather shocks, measured as past exposure to deviations in average rainfall levels, and the effect of weather-related shocks that have recently occurred. We examine how households cope with shocks in the short term, in terms of consumption smoothing and the depletion of liquid assets, and whether over the longer-term shock exposure impacts on household investment decisions and welfare. Our results show that households on average manage to smooth consumption in the face of recent shocks by depleting savings and borrowing. Over the longer-term, households that are exposed to shocks invest less in productive assets leading to lower consumption levels. Moreover, the investment strategies of these households do not appear to pay off once additional shocks occur later on.

Suggested Citation

  • Newman, Carol & Tarp, Finn, 2020. "Shocks and agricultural investment decisions," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:94:y:2020:i:c:s0306919219306323
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101810
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919219306323
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.foodpol.2019.101810?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fafchamps, Marcel & Udry, Christopher & Czukas, Katherine, 1998. "Drought and saving in West Africa: are livestock a buffer stock?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 273-305, April.
    2. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1993. "Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing, and the Accumulation of Durable Production Assets in Low-Income Countries: Investment in Bullocks in India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 223-244, April.
    3. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    4. Dean Karlan & Robert Osei & Isaac Osei-Akoto & Christopher Udry, 2014. "Agricultural Decisions after Relaxing Credit and Risk Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 597-652.
    5. Jensen, Nathaniel D. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Mude, Andrew G., 2017. "Cash transfers and index insurance: A comparative impact analysis from northern Kenya," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 14-28.
    6. Stephen P. Zeldes, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 275-298.
    7. Townsend, Robert M, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 539-591, May.
    8. Carol Newman & Fiona Wainwright, 2011. "Income Shocks and Household Risk-Coping Strategies: Evidence from Rural Vietnam," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp358, IIIS.
    9. Christopher Udry, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in a Rural Credit Market: An Empirical Investigation in Northern Nigeria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(3), pages 495-526.
    10. Dercon, Stefan & Hill, Ruth Vargas & Clarke, Daniel & Outes-Leon, Ingo & Seyoum Taffesse, Alemayehu, 2014. "Offering rainfall insurance to informal insurance groups: Evidence from a field experiment in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 132-143.
    11. Harold Alderman & Christina H. Paxson, 1994. "Do the Poor Insure? A Synthesis of the Literature on Risk and Consumption in Developing Countries," International Economic Association Series, in: Edmar L. Bacha (ed.), Economics in a Changing World, chapter 3, pages 48-78, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Xavier Giné & Robert Townsend & James Vickery, 2008. "Patterns of Rainfall Insurance Participation in Rural India," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(3), pages 539-566, October.
    13. Shawn Cole & Xavier Giné & James Vickery, 2017. "How Does Risk Management Influence Production Decisions? Evidence from a Field Experiment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(6), pages 1935-1970.
    14. Ersado, Lire & Alderman, Harold & Alwang, Jeffrey, 2003. "Changes in Consumption and Saving Behavior before and after Economic Shocks: Evidence from Zimbabwe," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(1), pages 187-215, October.
    15. Jonathan Morduch, 1995. "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 103-114, Summer.
    16. Shawn Cole & Xavier Gine & Jeremy Tobacman & Petia Topalova & Robert Townsend & James Vickery, 2013. "Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 104-135, January.
    17. Gloede, Oliver & Menkhoff, Lukas & Waibel, Hermann, 2015. "Shocks, Individual Risk Attitude, and Vulnerability to Poverty among Rural Households in Thailand and Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 54-78.
    18. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Binswanger, Hans P, 1993. "Wealth, Weather Risk and the Composition and Profitability of Agricultural Investments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 56-78, January.
    19. Kyle Emerick & Alain de Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet & Manzoor H. Dar, 2016. "Technological Innovations, Downside Risk, and the Modernization of Agriculture," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1537-1561, June.
    20. Mikkel Barslund & Finn Tarp, 2008. "Formal and Informal Rural Credit in Four Provinces of Vietnam," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 485-503, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Saiful Islam & Kazunobu Okubo & Abu Hayat Md. Saiful Islam & Masayuki Sato, 2022. "Investigating the effect of climate change on food loss and food security in Bangladesh," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-24, January.
    2. Nihal Ahmed & Franklin Ore Areche & Guillermo Gomer Cotrina Cabello & Pedro David Córdova Trujillo & Adnan Ahmed Sheikh & Mohamad G. Abiad, 2022. "Intensifying Effects of Climate Change in Food Loss: A Threat to Food Security in Turkey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Eva-Maria Egger & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2023. "Evolution of Multidimensional Poverty in Crisis-Ridden Mozambique," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 485-519, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carol Newman & Finn Tarp, 2018. "Risk and investment: Evidence from rural Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 122, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Carol Newman & Finn Tarp, 2018. "Risk and investment: Evidence from rural Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-122, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Ayako Matsuda & Takashi Kurosaki, 2017. "Temperature and Rainfall Index Insurance in India," OSIPP Discussion Paper 17E002, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    4. Gaurav, Sarthak, 2015. "Are Rainfed Agricultural Households Insured? Evidence from Five Villages in Vidarbha, India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 719-736.
    5. Gunnsteinsson, Snaebjorn, 2020. "Experimental identification of asymmetric information: Evidence on crop insurance in the Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Renata Baborska & Emilio Hernandez & Emiliano Magrini & Cristian Morales-Opazo, 2020. "The impact of financial inclusion on rural food security experience: A perspective from low-and middle-income countries," Review of Development Finance Journal, Chartered Institute of Development Finance, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18.
    7. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 2001. "Behavioral responses to risk in rural China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 23-49, October.
    8. Takahashi, Kazushi & Ikegami, Munenobu & Sheahan, Megan & Barrett, Christopher B., 2014. "Quasi-experimental evidence on the drivers of index-based livestock insurance demand in Southern Ethiopia," IDE Discussion Papers 480, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    9. Zimmerman, Frederick J. & Carter, Michael R., 2003. "Asset smoothing, consumption smoothing and the reproduction of inequality under risk and subsistence constraints," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 233-260, August.
    10. Kurosaki, Takashi & Fafchamps, Marcel, 2002. "Insurance market efficiency and crop choices in Pakistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 419-453, April.
    11. Rose, Elaina, 2001. "Ex ante and ex post labor supply response to risk in a low-income area," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 371-388, April.
    12. Stefan Dercon, 2002. "Income Risk, Coping Strategies, and Safety Nets," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 17(2), pages 141-166, September.
    13. Felipe Kast & Dina Pomeranz, 2013. "Saving More to Borrow Less: Experimental Evidence from Access to Formal Savings Accounts in Chile," Harvard Business School Working Papers 14-001, Harvard Business School, revised Jun 2014.
    14. Jin, Ling & Chen, Kevin Z. & Yu, Bingxin & Huang, Zuhui, 2011. "How prudent are rural households in developing transition economies:," IFPRI discussion papers 1127, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    15. Matsuda, Ayako & Kurosaki, Takashi & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2013. "Rainfall and Temperature Index Insurance in India: Project Documentation," PRIMCED Discussion Paper Series 34, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    16. Jeong-Joon Lee & Yasuyuki Sawada, 2005. "Precautionary Saving under Liquidity Constraints: Evidence from Rural Pakistan (Published in "Journal of Development Economics". )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-051, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    17. Fafchamps, Marcel & Udry, Christopher & Czukas, Katherine, 1998. "Drought and saving in West Africa: are livestock a buffer stock?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 273-305, April.
    18. Lee, Jeong-Joon & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2010. "Precautionary saving under liquidity constraints: Evidence from rural Pakistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 77-86, January.
    19. Takahashi, Kazushi & Ikegami, Munenobu & Sheahan, Megan & Barrett, Christopher B., 2016. "Experimental Evidence on the Drivers of Index-Based Livestock Insurance Demand in Southern Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 324-340.
    20. Bjorn Van Campenhout & Emmanuel Bizimungu, 2018. "Risk and returns of sustainable crop intensification: The case of smallholder rice and potato farmers in Uganda," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 36(S2), pages 605-633, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rainfall; Weather shocks; Investment; Shock-coping;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:94:y:2020:i:c:s0306919219306323. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.