Viewpoint: Ensuring affordability of diets in the face of shocks

Climate-related shocks, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine have exacerbated world hunger, making it more difficult for people to meet their nutritional needs. This viewpoint examines, for 136 countries, the ability of populations to afford an energy-sufficient and a healthy diet in the face of shocks. Using pre-pandemic data from 2019, we calculate the percentage of countries’ populations at risk of losing access to these diets in the event of a one-tenth, one-fifth, or one-third reduction in real income. We find that, in addition to the 152 million people who were unable to afford a basic energy-sufficient diet in 2019, up to 260 million people (mostly in low-income and lower-middle income countries) are vulnerable to not being able to afford it should a shock reduce real income by up to one-third. The more expensive healthy diet, which was already out of reach for 3 billion people before the pandemic, risks becoming inaccessible to an additional 968 million people (nearly all in middle-income countries). Our findings indicate that addressing income inequality is key when trying to ensure access to energy-sufficient diets, while raising mean income and reducing diet cost are increasingly relevant for ensuring access to healthy diets, especially following a shock. We thus provide insights on how countries facing shocks will need a varying mix of social protection, income stabilization, lowering the cost of nutritious foods, and investing in broader economic development.