IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v178y2026ics0304405x25002338.html

Hidden alpha

Author

Listed:
  • Ammann, Manuel
  • Cochardt, Alexander
  • Cohen, Lauren
  • Heller, Stephan

Abstract

We provide novel evidence suggestive of insider trading through concealed relationships identified using information from over 100,000 Facebook profiles and their 35 million friends. Focusing on connections between fund managers and firm officers, we demonstrate that hidden ties are linked to substantial abnormal returns averaging 135 basis points per month (exceeding 16% alpha annually, t-stat = 3.54) across the universe of mutual funds and public firms. These hidden ties emerge as the most powerful predictor of future stock returns among documented network characteristics, with predictive power increasing over time through the present day. The premium associated with such connections arises not from endogenous selection or familiarity bias; instead, fund managers exhibit specific timing ability in deciding when to hold (or avoid) stocks of firm officers linked through hidden ties. The value of trading information rises with the degree of concealment and is concentrated around earnings and M&A events. The premium is absent in index funds, where strategic stock selection and timing are infeasible. Our findings on the value of hidden ties remain robust across industries, investment styles, time periods, and firm types.

Suggested Citation

  • Ammann, Manuel & Cochardt, Alexander & Cohen, Lauren & Heller, Stephan, 2026. "Hidden alpha," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:178:y:2026:i:c:s0304405x25002338
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104225
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X25002338
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104225?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lauren Cohen & Andrea Frazzini & Christopher Malloy, 2010. "Sell‐Side School Ties," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1409-1437, August.
    2. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J. & Blake, Christopher R., 2011. "Holdings Data, Security Returns, and the Selection of Superior Mutual Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 341-367, April.
    3. Joshua D. Coval & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2001. "The Geography of Investment: Informed Trading and Asset Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(4), pages 811-841, August.
    4. Lauren Cohen & Andrea Frazzini & Christopher Malloy, 2008. "The Small World of Investing: Board Connections and Mutual Fund Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(5), pages 951-979, October.
    5. Cline, Brandon N. & Posylnaya, Valeriya V., 2019. "Illegal insider trading: Commission and SEC detection," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 247-269.
    6. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    7. Jeon, Yoontae & McCurdy, Thomas H. & Zhao, Xiaofei, 2022. "News as sources of jumps in stock returns: Evidence from 21 million news articles for 9000 companies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 1-17.
    8. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
    9. Patel, Saurin & Sarkissian, Sergei, 2017. "To Group or Not to Group? Evidence from Mutual Fund Databases," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(5), pages 1989-2021, October.
    10. Brian M. Weller, 2018. "Does Algorithmic Trading Reduce Information Acquisition?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(6), pages 2184-2226.
    11. Alan D. Jagolinzer & David F. Larcker & Gaizka Ormazabal & Daniel J. Taylor, 2020. "Political Connections and the Informativeness of Insider Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 1833-1876, August.
    12. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    13. Chen, Huaizhi & Cohen, Lauren & Gurun, Umit & Lou, Dong & Malloy, Christopher, 2020. "IQ from IP: simplifying search in portfolio choice," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101133, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1058, July.
    15. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    16. Cremers, Martijn & Petajisto, Antti & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2013. "Should Benchmark Indices Have Alpha? Revisiting Performance Evaluation," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 2(1), pages 1-48, July.
    17. Veronika K. Pool & Noah Stoffman & Scott E. Yonker, 2015. "The People in Your Neighborhood: Social Interactions and Mutual Fund Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(6), pages 2679-2732, December.
    18. Cai, Ye & Sevilir, Merih, 2012. "Board connections and M&A transactions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 327-349.
    19. Chen, Huaizhi & Cohen, Lauren & Gurun, Umit & Lou, Dong & Malloy, Christopher, 2020. "IQ from IP: Simplifying search in portfolio choice," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 118-137.
    20. Massa, Massimo & Reuter, Jonathan & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2010. "When should firms share credit with employees? Evidence from anonymously managed mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 400-424, March.
    21. Ahern, Kenneth R., 2017. "Information networks: Evidence from illegal insider trading tips," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 26-47.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bai, John Jianqiu & Tang, Yuehua & Wan, Chi & Yüksel, H. Zafer, 2022. "Fund manager skill in an era of globalization: Offshore concentration and fund performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 18-40.
    2. Ni, He & He, Jiahao & Wang, Weijia, 2026. "Can network centrality explain mutual fund alpha: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk & O'Sullivan, Niall, 2016. "A review of behavioural and management effects in mutual fund performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 162-176.
    4. Chen, Jean Jinghan & Xie, Li & Zhou, Si, 2020. "Managerial multi-tasking, Team diversity, and mutual fund performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Fung, Scott & Obaid, Khaled & Tsai, Shih-Chuan, 2024. "Information acquisition and processing skills of institutions and retail investors around information shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Jaspersen, Stefan & Limbach, Peter, 2020. "Screening Discrimination in Financial Markets: Evidence from CEO-Fund Manager Dyads," CFR Working Papers 17-02, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR), revised 2020.
    7. Jiang, Hao & Sun, Zheng, 2014. "Dispersion in beliefs among active mutual funds and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 341-365.
    8. Genc, Egemen & Shirley, Sara E. & Stark, Jeffrey R. & Tran, Hai, 2023. "Finding information in obvious places: Work connections and mutual fund investment ideas," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    9. Jaspersen, Stefan, 2021. "Mutual Fund Bets on Market Power," CFR Working Papers 16-07, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR), revised 2021.
    10. Cai, Yu & Lau, Sie Ting, 2015. "Informed trading around earnings and mutual fund alphas," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 168-180.
    11. Antoniou, Constantinos & Mitali, Shema F., 2023. "Do stock-level experienced returns influence security selection?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    12. Jeongseop Song & Kim Hiang Liow, 2023. "Industrial tail exposure risk and asset price: Evidence from US REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1209-1245, September.
    13. Jaspersen, Stefan & Limbach, Peter, 2018. "Knowing Me, Knowing You? Similarity to the CEO and Fund Managers' Investment Decisions," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181501, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Kostovetsky, Leonard & Ratushny, Vladimir, 2024. "Doctors managing mutual funds: Returns to specialization in asset management," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Pungaliya, Raunaq S. & Wang, Yanbo, 2023. "Machine invasion: Automation in information acquisition and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    16. Jing Xie, 2024. "Stock-Picking by Mutual Funds: Evidence from Trading in Family-Controlled Firms," Working Papers 202411, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.
    17. Po-Hsuan Hsu & Dongmei Li & Qin Li & Siew Hong Teoh & Kevin Tseng, 2022. "Valuation of New Trademarks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 257-279, January.
    18. Crawford, Steven & Gray, Wesley & Johnson, Bryan & Price, Richard A., 2025. "The impact of buy-side analyst social network relationships on recommendations, price discovery, and employment outcomes," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    19. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2017. "Research in finance: A review of influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    20. Li, Frank Weikai & Sun, Chengzhu, 2022. "Information acquisition and expected returns: Evidence from EDGAR search traffic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:178:y:2026:i:c:s0304405x25002338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.