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Dispersion in beliefs among active mutual funds and the cross-section of stock returns

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  • Jiang, Hao
  • Sun, Zheng

Abstract

We propose a measure of dispersion in fund managers׳ beliefs about future stock returns based on their active holdings, i.e., deviations from benchmarks. We find that both the level of and the change in dispersion positively predict subsequent stock returns on a risk-adjusted basis. This effect is particularly pronounced among stocks with high information asymmetry and binding short-sale constraints. These results suggest that a subgroup of informed managers drives up the dispersion in active holdings when they place large bets after receiving positive private information. Binding short-sale constraints, however, prevent them from fully using their negative private information, leading to low dispersion in active holdings.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Hao & Sun, Zheng, 2014. "Dispersion in beliefs among active mutual funds and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 341-365.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:114:y:2014:i:2:p:341-365
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2014.06.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Differences of opinion and stock market volatility: evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 339-351, April.
    2. Rakowski, David & Shirley, Sara E. & Stark, Jeffrey R., 2017. "Tail-risk hedging, dividend chasing, and investment constraints: The use of exchange-traded notes by mutual funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 91-107.
    3. Jaspersen, Stefan, 2020. "Mutual Fund Bets on Market Power," CFR Working Papers 16-07, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    4. Chen, Tao, 2020. "Does news affect disagreement in global markets?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 174-183.
    5. Smales, Lee A. & Yang, Yi, 2015. "The importance of belief dispersion in the response of gold futures to macroeconomic announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 292-302.
    6. Matteo Bonato & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "The Predictive Power of Industrial Electricity Usage Revisited: Evidence from Nonparametric Causality Tests," Working Papers 201679, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Demirer, Riza & Pierdzioch, Christian & Zhang, Huacheng, 2017. "On the short-term predictability of stock returns: A quantile boosting approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 35-41.
    8. Bilal Ahmad Pandow & Khurshid Ahmad Butt, 2017. "Risk and Return Analysis of Mutual Fund Industry in India," Journal of Banking and Financial Dynamics, Sophia, vol. 1(1), pages 54-65.
    9. Li, Wei & Rhee, Ghon & Wang, Steven Shuye, 2017. "Differences in herding: Individual vs. institutional investors," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 174-185.
    10. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Philip, Dennis & Tuneshev, Ruslan, 2018. "Differences in options investors’ expectations and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 315-336.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mutual funds; Private information; Dispersion in beliefs; Short-sale constraints; Asymmetric information;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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