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Long-run risk in durable consumption

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  • Yang, Wei

Abstract

Durable consumption growth is persistent and predicted by the price-dividend ratio. This provides strong and direct evidence for the existence of a highly persistent expected component. Durable consumption growth is left-skewed and exhibits time-varying volatility. I model durable consumption growth as containing a persistent expected component and driven by counter-cyclical volatility, nondurable consumption as a random walk, and dividend growth as exposed to the expected component of durable consumption growth. Together with nonseparable Epstein-Zin preferences, the model demonstrates that long-run risk in durable consumption can explain major asset market phenomena. The model also generates an upward-sloping real term structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Wei, 2011. "Long-run risk in durable consumption," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 45-61, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:102:y:2011:i:1:p:45-61
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    3. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2024. "Life-cycle risk-taking with personal disaster risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 378-396.
    4. Sushanta K. Mallick & Mohammed Mohsin, 2016. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflationary Shocks with Durable and Non-Durable Consumption," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 895-921, November.
    5. Chen, Guojin & Hong, Zhiwu & Ren, Yu, 2016. "Durable consumption and asset returns: Cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 231-244.
    6. Bakshi, Gurdip & Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2012. "Variance bounds on the permanent and transitory components of stochastic discount factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 191-208.
    7. Ravi Jagannathan & Srikant Marakani, 2015. "Price-Dividend Ratio Factor Proxies for Long-Run Risks," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-47.
    8. Bjørn Eraker & Ivan Shaliastovich & Wenyu Wang, 2016. "Durable Goods, Inflation Risk, and Equilibrium Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 193-231.
    9. Yoo, Donghoon, 2019. "Ambiguous information, permanent income, and consumption fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 79-96.
    10. Elminejad, Ali & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2022. "Relative Risk Aversion: A Meta-Analysis," MetaArXiv b8uhe, Center for Open Science.
    11. Wang, Qin & Ren, Yu & Zou, Yiheng, 2016. "Uninsured expense shocks and equity premia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 64-74.
    12. Vlad Rosca & Raluca Ignat, 2014. "The Sustainability of Fish Consumption in Romania: Customer Behaviour prior and after the Country`s Adherence to the EU," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(35), pages 243-243, February.
    13. Ikeda, Ryoichi & Igarashi, Yoske, 2024. "How far can the long-run risk model with durable goods explain the variation of the yield curve?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 444-459.
    14. Qin Wang & Yiheng Zou & Yu Ren & Zhuo Huang, 2015. "The Spirit of Capitalism and the Equity Premium," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 16(2), pages 493-513, November.
    15. Myroslav Pidkuyko, 2016. "When the Going Gets Tough: Durable Consumption and the Equity Premium," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 225, Economics, The University of Manchester.
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