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Unforeseen evidence

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  • Piermont, Evan

Abstract

I propose a normative updating rule, extended Bayesianism, for the incorporation of probabilistic information arising from the process of becoming more aware. Extended Bayesianism generalizes standard Bayesian updating to allow the posterior to reside on richer probability space than the prior. I then provide a behavioral characterization of this rule to conclude that a decision maker's subjective expected utility beliefs are consistent with extended Bayesianism.

Suggested Citation

  • Piermont, Evan, 2021. "Unforeseen evidence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:193:y:2021:i:c:s0022053121000521
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2021.105235
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lawrence Blume & Adam Brandenburger & Eddie Dekel, 2014. "Lexicographic Probabilities and Choice Under Uncertainty," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Language of Game Theory Putting Epistemics into the Mathematics of Games, chapter 6, pages 137-160, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Karni Edi & Valenzuela-Stookey Quitzé & Vierø Marie-Louise, 2021. "Reverse Bayesianism: A Generalization," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 557-569, June.
    3. Karni, Edi & Vierø, Marie-Louise, 2017. "Awareness of unawareness: A theory of decision making in the face of ignorance," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 301-328.
    4. Modica, Salvatore & Rustichini, Aldo, 1999. "Unawareness and Partitional Information Structures," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 265-298, May.
    5. Pietro Ortoleva, 2012. "Modeling the Change of Paradigm: Non-Bayesian Reactions to Unexpected News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2410-2436, October.
    6. Halpern, Joseph Y., 2010. "Lexicographic probability, conditional probability, and nonstandard probability," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 155-179, January.
    7. Halpern, Joseph Y. & Rêgo, Leandro C., 2009. "Reasoning about knowledge of unawareness," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 503-525, November.
    8. Simone Galperti, 2019. "Persuasion: The Art of Changing Worldviews," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(3), pages 996-1031, March.
    9. Evan Piermont & Peio Zuazo-Garin, 2020. "Failures of Contingent Thinking," Papers 2007.07703, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
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    Cited by:

    1. Araujo, Felipe A. & Piermont, Evan, 2023. "Unawareness and risk taking: The role of context," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 61-79.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Extended Bayesianism; Reverse Bayesianism; Conditional expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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