The impact of incarceration on reoffending: A period-to-period analysis of Canadian youth followed into adulthood

Several theories and policies on punishment describe within-person processes whereby an increase in the number of days a person spends incarcerated decreases their likelihood of reoffending. Contradicting these perspectives, meta-analyses report universal consensus that incarceration has either a null or crime-inducing impact on reoffending. However, studies included in this meta-analytic work relied on between-group analyses. Within-person analyses more closely align with how theories and policies describe the relationship between incarceration and reoffending and have the additional benefit of addressing the selection bias problem of between-group analyses. Using longitudinal data from the Incarcerated Serious and Violent Young Offender Study in British Columbia, Canada (n = 1719), a first-differenced fixed-effect estimator modeled the relationship between year-over-year change in the number of days spent incarcerated and future year-over-year change in number of convictions. Between ages 12–25, year-over-year increases in days spent incarcerated prospectively influenced year-over-year decreases in convictions. This finding was consistent across types of convictions, age-stages, ethnicity, gender, birth cohort, and exposure to different youth justice legislation. It is unclear whether reductions in convictions resulted from incarceration having a deterrent effect or a rehabilitative effect. It would be a mistake to interpret findings as support for expanding the use of incarceration or that Canada's correctional system should maintain the status quo.