Pandemic, protests, and policing: Clearing crime in 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic and the George Floyd murder and subsequent public reaction disrupted American policing in 2020. Because these socio-political events substantially affected agency practices and reduced citizen engagement in crime investigation, they may have been reflected in a key policing outcome, crime clearance by arrest. In survival analysis of 437,763 serious crime incidents from 131 police agencies in 2019 and 2020, drawn from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), we compared clearance hazard rates in periods of 2020 defined by the pandemic and George Floyd’s murder to those in corresponding periods of 2019, controlling for other agency/jurisdiction-level and incident-level factors. Results indicated slightly higher clearance in the initial pandemic period of 2020 than in the equivalent period of 2019. Following the Floyd killing, clearance was lower in 2020 than in the corresponding periods of 2019. Additional analyses separated incidents by city size and crime type and examined data for the early part of 2021. Pandemic-related changes in policing may not have been detrimental to arrest clearance, but a highly prominent police killing may have been. Policymakers and police leaders should closely examine pandemic-related organizational changes and consider whether continuing at least some would improve clearance rates and other policing outcomes. In addition to reducing incidents of police lethal violence, the police should focus on building legitimacy and fostering community engagement by consistently applying principles of procedural justice in everyday interactions with the public.