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A new approach to assessing model risk in high dimensions

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  • Bernard, Carole
  • Vanduffel, Steven

Abstract

A central problem for regulators and risk managers concerns the risk assessment of an aggregate portfolio defined as the sum of d individual dependent risks Xi. This problem is mainly a numerical issue once the joint distribution of X1,X2,…,Xd is fully specified. Unfortunately, while the marginal distributions of the risks Xi are often known, their interaction (dependence) is usually either unknown or only partially known, implying that any risk assessment of the portfolio is subject to model uncertainty.

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  • Bernard, Carole & Vanduffel, Steven, 2015. "A new approach to assessing model risk in high dimensions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 166-178.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:58:y:2015:i:c:p:166-178
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.03.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcelo Brutti Righi & Fernanda Maria Muller & Marlon Ruoso Moresco, 2017. "On a robust risk measurement approach for capital determination errors minimization," Papers 1707.09829, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    2. Rüschendorf, L., 2019. "Analysis of risk bounds in partially specified additive factor models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 115-121.
    3. Edgars Jakobsons & Steven Vanduffel, 2015. "Dependence Uncertainty Bounds for the Expectile of a Portfolio," Risks, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-25, December.
    4. Carole Bernard & Oleg Bondarenko & Steven Vanduffel, 2018. "Rearrangement algorithm and maximum entropy," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 261(1), pages 107-134, February.
    5. Ben R. Craig & Margherita Giuzio & Sandra Paterlini, 2019. "The Effect of Possible EU Diversification Requirements on the Risk of Banks’ Sovereign Bond Portfolios," Working Papers 19-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    6. Thibaut Lux & Antonis Papapantoleon, 2016. "Model-free bounds on Value-at-Risk using extreme value information and statistical distances," Papers 1610.09734, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2018.
    7. Carole Bernard & Ludger Rüschendorf & Steven Vanduffel & Ruodu Wang, 2017. "Risk bounds for factor models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 631-659, July.
    8. Rüschendorf L., 2018. "Risk bounds with additional information on functionals of the risk vector," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 102-113, June.
    9. Kim, Sojung & Weber, Stefan, 2022. "Simulation methods for robust risk assessment and the distorted mix approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(1), pages 380-398.
    10. Cornilly, Dries & Vanduffel, Steven, 2019. "Equivalent distortion risk measures on moment spaces," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 187-192.
    11. Valeriane Jokhadze & Wolfgang M. Schmidt, 2020. "Measuring Model Risk In Financial Risk Management And Pricing," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 23(02), pages 1-37, April.
    12. Kley, Oliver & Klüppelberg, Claudia & Paterlini, Sandra, 2020. "Modelling extremal dependence for operational risk by a bipartite graph," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    13. Lauzier, Jean-Gabriel & Lin, Liyuan & Wang, Ruodu, 2023. "Pairwise counter-monotonicity," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 279-287.
    14. Morelli, Giacomo & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2019. "Volatility tail risk under fractionality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    15. Carole Bernard & Ludger Rüschendorf & Steven Vanduffel, 2017. "Value-at-Risk Bounds With Variance Constraints," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(3), pages 923-959, September.
    16. Hofert Marius & Memartoluie Amir & Saunders David & Wirjanto Tony, 2017. "Improved algorithms for computing worst Value-at-Risk," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 34(1-2), pages 13-31, June.
    17. Lux, Thibaut & Papapantoleon, Antonis, 2019. "Model-free bounds on Value-at-Risk using extreme value information and statistical distances," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 73-83.
    18. Cuberos A. & Masiello E. & Maume-Deschamps V., 2015. "High level quantile approximations of sums of risks," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-18, October.
    19. Marcelo Brutti Righi, 2018. "A theory for combinations of risk measures," Papers 1807.01977, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    20. Sojung Kim & Stefan Weber, 2020. "Simulation Methods for Robust Risk Assessment and the Distorted Mix Approach," Papers 2009.03653, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    21. Luo, Ming & Wu, Shaomin, 2018. "A value-at-risk approach to optimisation of warranty policy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(2), pages 513-522.
    22. Carole Bernard & Don McLeish, 2016. "Algorithms for Finding Copulas Minimizing Convex Functions of Sums," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 33(05), pages 1-26, October.
    23. Bernard Carole & Vanduffel Steven, 2015. "Quantile of a Mixture with Application to Model Risk Assessment," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-10, October.
    24. Simon Fritzsch & Maike Timphus & Gregor Weiss, 2021. "Marginals Versus Copulas: Which Account For More Model Risk In Multivariate Risk Forecasting?," Papers 2109.10946, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model risk; VaR; Rearrangement Algorithm; Tail dependence; Outlier detection; Minimum variance portfolio; Credit risk management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General

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