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Optimal portfolios under worst-case scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Carole Bernard
  • Jit Seng Chen
  • Steven Vanduffel

Abstract

In standard portfolio theories such as Mean-Variance optimization, expected utility theory, rank dependent utility heory, Yaari's dual theory and cumulative prospect theory, the worst outcomes for optimal strategies occur when the market declines (e.g. during crises), which is at odds with the needs of many investors. Hence, we depart from the traditional settings and study optimal strategies for investors who impose additional constraints on their final wealth in the states corresponding to a stressed financial market. We provide a framework that maintains the stylized features of the SP/A theory while dealing with the goal of security in a more flexible way. Preferences become state-dependent, and we assess the impact of these preferences on trading decisions. We construct optimal strategies explicitly and show how they outperform traditional diversified strategies under worst-case scenarios. © 2014 Copyright Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Suggested Citation

  • Carole Bernard & Jit Seng Chen & Steven Vanduffel, 2014. "Optimal portfolios under worst-case scenarios," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/257677, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/257677
    Note: SCOPUS: ar.j
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Acharya, Viral V., 2009. "A theory of systemic risk and design of prudential bank regulation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 224-255, September.
    2. Yaari, Menahem E, 1987. "The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 95-115, January.
    3. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    4. Philip H. Dybvig, 1988. "Inefficient Dynamic Portfolio Strategies or How to Throw Away a Million Dollars in the Stock Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 67-88.
    5. Peter Tankov, 2010. "Improved Frechet bounds and model-free pricing of multi-asset options," Papers 1004.4153, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2011.
    6. Steven Vanduffel & Andrew Chernih & Matheusz Maj & Wim Schoutens, 2009. "A Note on the Suboptimality of Path-Dependent Pay-Offs in Levy Markets," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 315-330.
    7. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
    8. repec:taf:uaajxx:v:15:y:2011:i:1:p:77-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Beare, Brendan K., 2011. "Measure preserving derivatives and the pricing kernel puzzle," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 689-697.
    10. Ibragimov, Rustam & Jaffee, Dwight & Walden, Johan, 2011. "Diversification disasters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 333-348, February.
    11. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279-279.
    12. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 2000. "Behavioral Portfolio Theory," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(02), pages 127-151, June.
    13. Valery Polkovnichenko, 2005. "Household Portfolio Diversification: A Case for Rank-Dependent Preferences," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1467-1502.
    14. Daniel G. Goldstein & Eric J. Johnson & William F. Sharpe, 2008. "Choosing Outcomes versus Choosing Products: Consumer-Focused Retirement Investment Advice," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 440-456, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernard, Carole & Vanduffel, Steven, 2015. "A new approach to assessing model risk in high dimensions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 166-178.
    2. Bernard, Carole & Chen, Jit Seng & Vanduffel, Steven, 2015. "Rationalizing investors’ choices," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 10-23.

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